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It really depends on your interpretation of the following clip [1]. He says "feature complete" by later this year, but then says "feature complete... to the de

by bhauer 7y ago

It really depends on your interpretation of the following clip [1]. He says "feature complete" by later this year, but then says "feature complete... to the degree that the person in the car does not need to pay attention" and classifies that as maybe second quarter of next year. Later still is sufficiently complete to convince regulators, with an estimate of later next year. And I think it's uncharitable to interpret these as delivery commitments. From the tone of the delivery, they are clearly targets (probably aggressive targets) and not commitments. Those who bludgeon Musk for being overly optimistic with timelines seem to overemphasize the importance of specific timeliness and lose sight of the bigger picture. [1] https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=9939 https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=9939

Starknaked 7y ago
Their demonstrations of FSD like the short clip in the clip linked shows far too much easy roads like highways and "controlled" scenario to believe in their confidence of the tech. If they put up autonomous driving videos going through a handful of major cities taking the most awkward routes through places where driving culture is typically more agressive and the narrowest of country lanes through the towns that were built for horse and cart and space is at a premium. Places like Rome, Barcelona, New Delhi. Towns that have built one way systems into their traffic management due to limited space and measures are taken to purposely bottleneck traffic like narrow road right of way signage. Show a car doing that and I'd understand their confidence. E.g there is a town where roadside parking is allowed because it purposely bottlenecks and slows down main road traffic. You have to judge and wait by the parked cars for a space you can pass through even when their maybe cars coming towards you there is time to pass the parked cars and into space where two cars can pass eachother. How is an autonomous car going to handle that kind of senario where it has to make a judgement call that factors in a far greater amount of risk element?
- m463 7y ago
  you might want to look at the youtube videos "what autopilot sees". They have videos for a lot of different cities.
  - Starknaked 7y ago
    I take it they aren't autonomous driving videos? My concern isn't really with what the car sees but how it reacts to unfamiliar scenarios. There are many edge case scenarios that us humans can't react to because there just isn't a logically correct maneuver. How do you tell a machine what to do when there is no correct answer? When none of the choices don't end up in catastrophe.
    - zizee 7y ago
      > My concern isn't really with what the car sees but ... Many Tesla automated driving sceptics say without lidar, Tesla has a major issue with FSD. > How do you tell a machine what to do when there is no correct answer? Why would you expect a machine to be able to handle scenarios that humans cannot handle? Note: I am sceptical of FSD being available this year, or even in a few year.
      - Starknaked 7y ago
        >Why would you expect a machine to be able to handle scenarios that humans cannot handle? That's exactly my point. Isn't that what Tesla is trying to do with FSD? It's trying to train a machine that will have to make ethical decisions. How do you factor legal liability for a machine in the same way you would with humans in the same scenario e.g fatal accidents? This is somewhat like the civilian version of AI military drones one day making automatic target selection.
        zizee 7y ago
        I disagree that you need a machine to understand ethics for FSD to come to fruition. Most humans would not be making ethical decisions in split second emergency situations. If humans are driving around somewhat successfully without being able to handle all edgecases, as long as the a machine can do as good a job or better it is a viable alternative to human drivers.
        Starknaked 7y ago
zaroth 7y ago
Thank you for the video link jumping to that timestamp! To paraphrase Elon, he is saying he sees three broad goalposts; 1) internally feature complete - end of this year, 2) internally they believe reliable enough that the software can let the user not actively check in / driver does not need to look out the window - mid next year 3) able to convince regulators in some jurisdictions that drivers do not have to look out the window - end of next year. Here's where people go wrong. Now I didn't watch the entire video, but my understanding is Elon is not saying that the car will never need a user to take over. He is not saying the car will drive anywhere, at any time, under any conditions. He is saying that the software will be reliable enough to fully drive the car in all of the basic driving environments (highway, rural, urban, etc.). It detects stop signs, traffic lights, it navigates intersections, it makes unprotected left turns, it can merge, etc. That's what I think Elon is trying to convey when he says "feature complete". There will be neural networks, algorithms, logical decision trees, whatever, to handle all of these common driving scenarios. He wants all those scenarios coded and demoable in some condition by the end of this year. This is not something they roll out in a day. This is gradual feature deployment over the next year leading up until "feature complete" which is a point where some drivers are getting door-to-door in some cases under supervision with wheel check-ins but without any disengagement for the whole ride. After that point it is 6-12 months of training, training, training the networks based on Fleet learning, billions of miles tracking every single disengagement, and aggregating all that user feedback into the algorithms. They will know when the system needs to disengage. They will know every way that it fails. They will be tracking this data and providing it to regulators for evaulation. And Elon thinks around the end of next year, they could be in a position to make a case for removing the wheel checkins and telling users that this car can drive itself, and keep you safe, and that if it hits a threshold where it can't do that, it will fail gracefully. So perhaps there will still be the intersections where the car gets stuck. If there is a road closure and the cop wants you to drive on the wrong side of the road, maybe the computer will refuse to do it and just sit there and you'll have to take over. But if you're cruising down the highway and an 18-wheeler pulls out in front of you, yeah, the car has to be able to see that and stop.

by bhauer 7y ago

Starknaked 7y ago

Their demonstrations of FSD like the short clip in the clip linked shows far too much easy roads like highways and "controlled" scenario to believe in their confidence of the tech. If they put up autonomous driving videos going through a handful of major cities taking the most awkward routes through places where driving culture is typically more agressive and the narrowest of country lanes through the towns that were built for horse and cart and space is at a premium. Places like Rome, Barcelona, New Delhi. Towns that have built one way systems into their traffic management due to limited space and measures are taken to purposely bottleneck traffic like narrow road right of way signage. Show a car doing that and I'd understand their confidence. E.g there is a town where roadside parking is allowed because it purposely bottlenecks and slows down main road traffic. You have to judge and wait by the parked cars for a space you can pass through even when their maybe cars coming towards you there is time to pass the parked cars and into space where two cars can pass eachother. How is an autonomous car going to handle that kind of senario where it has to make a judgement call that factors in a far greater amount of risk element?

m463 7y ago
you might want to look at the youtube videos "what autopilot sees". They have videos for a lot of different cities.
- Starknaked 7y ago
  I take it they aren't autonomous driving videos? My concern isn't really with what the car sees but how it reacts to unfamiliar scenarios. There are many edge case scenarios that us humans can't react to because there just isn't a logically correct maneuver. How do you tell a machine what to do when there is no correct answer? When none of the choices don't end up in catastrophe.
  - zizee 7y ago
    > My concern isn't really with what the car sees but ... Many Tesla automated driving sceptics say without lidar, Tesla has a major issue with FSD. > How do you tell a machine what to do when there is no correct answer? Why would you expect a machine to be able to handle scenarios that humans cannot handle? Note: I am sceptical of FSD being available this year, or even in a few year.
    - Starknaked 7y ago
      >Why would you expect a machine to be able to handle scenarios that humans cannot handle? That's exactly my point. Isn't that what Tesla is trying to do with FSD? It's trying to train a machine that will have to make ethical decisions. How do you factor legal liability for a machine in the same way you would with humans in the same scenario e.g fatal accidents? This is somewhat like the civilian version of AI military drones one day making automatic target selection.
      - zizee 7y ago
        I disagree that you need a machine to understand ethics for FSD to come to fruition. Most humans would not be making ethical decisions in split second emergency situations. If humans are driving around somewhat successfully without being able to handle all edgecases, as long as the a machine can do as good a job or better it is a viable alternative to human drivers.
        Starknaked 7y ago

zaroth 7y ago

Thank you for the video link jumping to that timestamp! To paraphrase Elon, he is saying he sees three broad goalposts; 1) internally feature complete - end of this year, 2) internally they believe reliable enough that the software can let the user not actively check in / driver does not need to look out the window - mid next year 3) able to convince regulators in some jurisdictions that drivers do not have to look out the window - end of next year. Here's where people go wrong. Now I didn't watch the entire video, but my understanding is Elon is not saying that the car will never need a user to take over. He is not saying the car will drive anywhere, at any time, under any conditions. He is saying that the software will be reliable enough to fully drive the car in all of the basic driving environments (highway, rural, urban, etc.). It detects stop signs, traffic lights, it navigates intersections, it makes unprotected left turns, it can merge, etc. That's what I think Elon is trying to convey when he says "feature complete". There will be neural networks, algorithms, logical decision trees, whatever, to handle all of these common driving scenarios. He wants all those scenarios coded and demoable in some condition by the end of this year. This is not something they roll out in a day. This is gradual feature deployment over the next year leading up until "feature complete" which is a point where some drivers are getting door-to-door in some cases under supervision with wheel check-ins but without any disengagement for the whole ride. After that point it is 6-12 months of training, training, training the networks based on Fleet learning, billions of miles tracking every single disengagement, and aggregating all that user feedback into the algorithms. They will know when the system needs to disengage. They will know every way that it fails. They will be tracking this data and providing it to regulators for evaulation. And Elon thinks around the end of next year, they could be in a position to make a case for removing the wheel checkins and telling users that this car can drive itself, and keep you safe, and that if it hits a threshold where it can't do that, it will fail gracefully. So perhaps there will still be the intersections where the car gets stuck. If there is a road closure and the cop wants you to drive on the wrong side of the road, maybe the computer will refuse to do it and just sit there and you'll have to take over. But if you're cruising down the highway and an 18-wheeler pulls out in front of you, yeah, the car has to be able to see that and stop.