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Driverless cars will take at least another 20 years.

loceng 7y ago
Not sure why someone downvoted you - I assume you haven't seen Tesla's most recent self-driving vehicle video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSCb_O4AGwc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSCb_O4AGwc ? If you don't think that's self-driving, what would you consider what's in that video?
- pjc50 7y ago
  I see a human behind the wheel of the car. "Self-driving 99.9% of the time" sounds very close to full self driving, but in order to have fully driverless Uber cars where you don't have to pay the driver, they'd have to not have a "safety" driver. That's the thing that's further away than people want to admit.
  - ben_w 7y ago
    Indeed, the difference between sounding good and being good means that although I’m an optimist on the timescales and benefits, I wouldn’t want to be in or near a vehicle which was only self-driving 99.9% of the time, as that’s not self driving for roughly one second every 20 minutes. I’d consider occasional use of taxis with two more nines, but I’d really want three or four more nines.
- pwinnski 7y ago
  It's not a driverless car, most obviously. The driver is right there the whole time. Other than that, it's a self-selected (from how many videos in which things didn't go as smoothly?) video under ideal conditions, used for marketing. Very, very far from what would be necessary for Uber to stop relying on drivers. I'm with the GP, 20 years sounds reasonable for general-case driverless cars. Or maybe longer.
- atomical 7y ago
  A lot of the comments below covered the main arguments. Also, can you imagine riding in a self-driving car moving at 80 miles per hour through the mountains in Montana? The thought of leaving that up to Musk and his team is terrifying. Musk is critical of the usefulness of Lidar and therefore I am critical of the usefulness of Elon Musk to driverless cars. He has not embraced critical safety architecture.

Not sure why someone downvoted you - I assume you haven't seen Tesla's most recent self-driving vehicle video - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSCb_O4AGwc https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WSCb_O4AGwc ? If you don't think that's self-driving, what would you consider what's in that video?

pjc50 7y ago
I see a human behind the wheel of the car. "Self-driving 99.9% of the time" sounds very close to full self driving, but in order to have fully driverless Uber cars where you don't have to pay the driver, they'd have to not have a "safety" driver. That's the thing that's further away than people want to admit.
- ben_w 7y ago
  Indeed, the difference between sounding good and being good means that although I’m an optimist on the timescales and benefits, I wouldn’t want to be in or near a vehicle which was only self-driving 99.9% of the time, as that’s not self driving for roughly one second every 20 minutes. I’d consider occasional use of taxis with two more nines, but I’d really want three or four more nines.
pwinnski 7y ago
It's not a driverless car, most obviously. The driver is right there the whole time. Other than that, it's a self-selected (from how many videos in which things didn't go as smoothly?) video under ideal conditions, used for marketing. Very, very far from what would be necessary for Uber to stop relying on drivers. I'm with the GP, 20 years sounds reasonable for general-case driverless cars. Or maybe longer.
atomical 7y ago
A lot of the comments below covered the main arguments. Also, can you imagine riding in a self-driving car moving at 80 miles per hour through the mountains in Montana? The thought of leaving that up to Musk and his team is terrifying. Musk is critical of the usefulness of Lidar and therefore I am critical of the usefulness of Elon Musk to driverless cars. He has not embraced critical safety architecture.