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I think that view neglects the costs of the fossil fuel infrastructure. At some point gas stations are going to start closing for lack of customers. That time i

I think that view neglects the costs of the fossil fuel infrastructure. At some point gas stations are going to start closing for lack of customers. That time is a while off yet, but all of the existing stations are not going to be able to be supported by say, half as many ICE cars. Convenience will go down and at some point prices may go up as the existing infrastructure is paid for by fewer stations and less fuel. At the same time electrics will continue getting better, cheaper and more convenient. This could provide an extra push.

cagenut 7y ago
I agree with your points on a longer time horizon, but elon needs to solve for model3 demand now (this year). EVs will not drive the kind of oil distribution market retraction you're describing until they're at least 10% of cars on the road, which would be years and years after they're 10% of new cars sold. So while I agree the affect you describe will help, we don't have time to wait for it.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  I think the time horizon for a step change in oil distribution is a lot shorter than people expect, precisely because it will be more likely a severe step change (ie, a snowball/crash) than an easy transition. Oil distribution is extremely complex, amazingly baroque, and has only a small number of players (they use a shell game [Shell Oil pun intended] of a large number of different "station" brands, but are really only a few companies left). When instability hits, it is likely to hit hard and look almost immediate (look at 70s Oil crises, for example). I don't yet have a guess what percentage of the car fleet needs to be EV for that to happen, but that number is also not the only potential disruption that may happen to cause it (again, we have the 70s Oil crises as examples). (Not that causing an Oil crisis is necessarily the right way to combat climate change, but in the question of chicken-and-egg between ICE and EV, people sure have a short memory for how volatile Oil is.)

cagenut 7y ago

I agree with your points on a longer time horizon, but elon needs to solve for model3 demand now (this year). EVs will not drive the kind of oil distribution market retraction you're describing until they're at least 10% of cars on the road, which would be years and years after they're 10% of new cars sold. So while I agree the affect you describe will help, we don't have time to wait for it.

WorldMaker 7y ago
I think the time horizon for a step change in oil distribution is a lot shorter than people expect, precisely because it will be more likely a severe step change (ie, a snowball/crash) than an easy transition. Oil distribution is extremely complex, amazingly baroque, and has only a small number of players (they use a shell game [Shell Oil pun intended] of a large number of different "station" brands, but are really only a few companies left). When instability hits, it is likely to hit hard and look almost immediate (look at 70s Oil crises, for example). I don't yet have a guess what percentage of the car fleet needs to be EV for that to happen, but that number is also not the only potential disruption that may happen to cause it (again, we have the 70s Oil crises as examples). (Not that causing an Oil crisis is necessarily the right way to combat climate change, but in the question of chicken-and-egg between ICE and EV, people sure have a short memory for how volatile Oil is.)