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>Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? Yeah, I did. It was very intere

>Did you watch the presentation relating to the Tesla chip release - along with watching the fully self-driving vehicle video? Yeah, I did. It was very interesting, but it was also Computer Vision 101. Karpathy essentially explained how neural nets work to a non-technical audience. It was nice. But did you not assume this was exactly what they were doing? I certainly did. Do you think no one at Waymo/Google/Uber/Apple/Lyft/Ford/GM/VW understands this or is trying to do the same or similar? Tesla does have a fleet data advantage, but Elon's "simulated data won't work" is nonsense. >If they're outright lying about the operations per second speeds (TOPS) they announced then that's one thing, however I doubt they would. They weren't lying about the specs, but it isn't industry leading, like they claimed. So now they have a second best chip that they have to produce themselves in small volumes. >Re: Solar City - they've had to redirect battery and other resources to focus on the vehicles. You're making a lot of assumptions. No, you are making a lot of assumptions. I am looking at the data. Since the solar shingle reveal, solar revenue has decreased every quarter. It is now 25% of what it was then. The reviews on Yelp and other sites are terrible. The Buffalo plant is in trouble, and hasn't fulfilled employment requirements. What does any of that have to do with batteries going to the Model 3 in volume in 2018? Again, your whole argument revolves around "Tesla says..."

loceng 8y ago
Of course others are working towards the same. That's the point and value of competition - and what Elon wanted to cause (whether you take it up as clever PR or genuine care) other manufacturers to start producing EVs. The point is in a highly competitive environment every incremental improvement is potentially a huge advantage in getting to market and scaling faster; Elon referenced the exponential aspect of this, especially in terms of the amount of sensor data they're already capturing and able to analyze compared all competitors combined. Citation needed for it not being industry leading, for their specific use case - hoped for TOPS along with maximum energy usage considerations? TOPS alone isn't the only factor, doing operations efficiently is required to keep energy usage as low as possible. Unless the lead engineer and whole chip team is pulling a fast one over Elon's head - he's not an idiot and not going to move forward in a direction he's not confident in. I wouldn't say ~1MM chips per year is small volume, and that's fine that they're producing in small volume - especially because they have the next version coming out in I think Elon said 2 years. They're likewise not building the facility to produce them themselves, they're outsourcing it - I think they said to Samsung in Austin, TX? I'm not making assumptions, and wasn't referring to that data you were referencing. Elon has said they had to divert resources from battery-related production; yes, it could be a convenient false story, however we can agree they're under a lot of pressure and have limited resources - so it's believable enough. My whole argument doesn't revolve around "Tesla says" of your generalized statement - however it does try to put down my argument to elevate yours. If you don't want to give any amount of trust to what Tesla says - yes, they've not been honest/straight-forward in all situations which isn't ideal - then the foundation for your arguments aren't taking into account a lot of the proof points. Just like now I believe you're being genuine in your belief, and that we just have different experiences, understandings, analysis - I suppose it's possible you have financial interest in Tesla failing and haven't disclosed that, however I won't make that assumptions - and will assume you're speaking in good faith. I don't really get what you're defending or your point is? Do you think Tesla will completely fail? Do you believe their stock is overvalued? That all auto manufacturers are now investing shittons of capital towards EV vehicles and infrastructure is perhaps the strongest signal that the market is there, and Tesla is leading it - and Elon believes they're 3-7+ years ahead of everyone else; and during even only 3 years they get get much further ahead in the race.
- navigatesol 8y ago
  >My whole argument doesn't revolve around "Tesla says" You wrote in this single reply: Elon wanted...Elon referenced...Elon said...Elon has said...Elon believes... This is the foundation of your argument. Elon also said he was taking Tesla private and had a buyer at $420, and settled after being accused of fraud. Things that Elon says, wants or believes are not facts. That is my point. >Citation needed for it not being industry leading, for their specific use case Go look at NVIDIA’s products, or the press release they put out after the Autonomy Event. Do you think NVIDIA knows a thing or two about autonomous vehicle tech and this use case? Because Tesla’s entire program up to this point, the one I’m sure you believe is best-in-class, is built on NVIDIA product. Can you provide a single citation that the Tesla chip is industry leading? >I wouldn't say ~1MM chips per year is small volume, First, 1 million is small. Second, you assume that they'll be building 1MM cars a year anytime soon, probably because "Elon said". Tesla produced ~70,000 cars this quarter. That's the reality. There is no evidence whatsoever that Tesla can produce, nor that there is demand for 1MM of these cars annually. >I suppose it's possible you have financial interest in Tesla failing and haven't disclosed that Ah yes, baseless accusations. You "won't make assumptions", but you'll throw that out there anyway. Just in case. If anyone disagrees about the future of Tesla, they obviously have some agenda. Elon said as much. If this forum had any neutrality, the admin would be warning and/or banning people making these accusations, which violate a number of the HN guidelines. I don’t short stocks. I buy the odd put. I'm long everything, including Tesla through various funds. I don’t get paid by the oil industry. If Tesla went belly up tomorrow, it would harm me financially. How about you? I’m willing to bet you own a Tesla car or stock, but didn’t disclose that, while speaking with vehement positivity about the company. Why not, if you expect it of others? I am interested in this subject matter because I find it absolutely baffling and mind-bending that there are so many red flags with this company, and yet there are segments of the population that simply cannot or refuse to see them. Of note: there seems to be a large overlap between that segment and the one that likes accusing other people of financial malfeasance or astroturfing. >Do you think Tesla will completely fail? Do you believe their stock is overvalued? No idea, but I doubt it fails completely. There's value in there somewhere. Probably selling high-end, high-margin EVs to wealthy people, the market they probably should have stuck to. Is the stock overvalued? Of course.

loceng 8y ago

Of course others are working towards the same. That's the point and value of competition - and what Elon wanted to cause (whether you take it up as clever PR or genuine care) other manufacturers to start producing EVs. The point is in a highly competitive environment every incremental improvement is potentially a huge advantage in getting to market and scaling faster; Elon referenced the exponential aspect of this, especially in terms of the amount of sensor data they're already capturing and able to analyze compared all competitors combined. Citation needed for it not being industry leading, for their specific use case - hoped for TOPS along with maximum energy usage considerations? TOPS alone isn't the only factor, doing operations efficiently is required to keep energy usage as low as possible. Unless the lead engineer and whole chip team is pulling a fast one over Elon's head - he's not an idiot and not going to move forward in a direction he's not confident in. I wouldn't say ~1MM chips per year is small volume, and that's fine that they're producing in small volume - especially because they have the next version coming out in I think Elon said 2 years. They're likewise not building the facility to produce them themselves, they're outsourcing it - I think they said to Samsung in Austin, TX? I'm not making assumptions, and wasn't referring to that data you were referencing. Elon has said they had to divert resources from battery-related production; yes, it could be a convenient false story, however we can agree they're under a lot of pressure and have limited resources - so it's believable enough. My whole argument doesn't revolve around "Tesla says" of your generalized statement - however it does try to put down my argument to elevate yours. If you don't want to give any amount of trust to what Tesla says - yes, they've not been honest/straight-forward in all situations which isn't ideal - then the foundation for your arguments aren't taking into account a lot of the proof points. Just like now I believe you're being genuine in your belief, and that we just have different experiences, understandings, analysis - I suppose it's possible you have financial interest in Tesla failing and haven't disclosed that, however I won't make that assumptions - and will assume you're speaking in good faith. I don't really get what you're defending or your point is? Do you think Tesla will completely fail? Do you believe their stock is overvalued? That all auto manufacturers are now investing shittons of capital towards EV vehicles and infrastructure is perhaps the strongest signal that the market is there, and Tesla is leading it - and Elon believes they're 3-7+ years ahead of everyone else; and during even only 3 years they get get much further ahead in the race.

navigatesol 8y ago
>My whole argument doesn't revolve around "Tesla says" You wrote in this single reply: Elon wanted...Elon referenced...Elon said...Elon has said...Elon believes... This is the foundation of your argument. Elon also said he was taking Tesla private and had a buyer at $420, and settled after being accused of fraud. Things that Elon says, wants or believes are not facts. That is my point. >Citation needed for it not being industry leading, for their specific use case Go look at NVIDIA’s products, or the press release they put out after the Autonomy Event. Do you think NVIDIA knows a thing or two about autonomous vehicle tech and this use case? Because Tesla’s entire program up to this point, the one I’m sure you believe is best-in-class, is built on NVIDIA product. Can you provide a single citation that the Tesla chip is industry leading? >I wouldn't say ~1MM chips per year is small volume, First, 1 million is small. Second, you assume that they'll be building 1MM cars a year anytime soon, probably because "Elon said". Tesla produced ~70,000 cars this quarter. That's the reality. There is no evidence whatsoever that Tesla can produce, nor that there is demand for 1MM of these cars annually. >I suppose it's possible you have financial interest in Tesla failing and haven't disclosed that Ah yes, baseless accusations. You "won't make assumptions", but you'll throw that out there anyway. Just in case. If anyone disagrees about the future of Tesla, they obviously have some agenda. Elon said as much. If this forum had any neutrality, the admin would be warning and/or banning people making these accusations, which violate a number of the HN guidelines. I don’t short stocks. I buy the odd put. I'm long everything, including Tesla through various funds. I don’t get paid by the oil industry. If Tesla went belly up tomorrow, it would harm me financially. How about you? I’m willing to bet you own a Tesla car or stock, but didn’t disclose that, while speaking with vehement positivity about the company. Why not, if you expect it of others? I am interested in this subject matter because I find it absolutely baffling and mind-bending that there are so many red flags with this company, and yet there are segments of the population that simply cannot or refuse to see them. Of note: there seems to be a large overlap between that segment and the one that likes accusing other people of financial malfeasance or astroturfing. >Do you think Tesla will completely fail? Do you believe their stock is overvalued? No idea, but I doubt it fails completely. There's value in there somewhere. Probably selling high-end, high-margin EVs to wealthy people, the market they probably should have stuck to. Is the stock overvalued? Of course.