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I think you're wrong about Tesla having an advantage in the non-electric parts of the car. The legacy car makers are way way better at actually building cars a

by treis 8y ago

I think you're wrong about Tesla having an advantage in the non-electric parts of the car. The legacy car makers are way way better at actually building cars at a profit. If a big touchscreen was a way to do that they have the chops to pull it off (or at least one of the suppliers does). There is/was a race between Tesla getting good at traditional car manufacturing and the legacy car makers coming up with their own EVs. It appears that Tesla is going to lose that race. Or at least not win it by enough where they will end up as one of the bigger car companies.

moduspol 8y ago
Nokia was better at building phones at a profit than all its competitors until Apple entered the market. Apple changed the market for what consumers expected from phones, which Nokia failed to adapt to, and the rest is history. Traditional automakers are, indeed, much better at profitably making what consumers wanted in 2012. It's not clear how well they'll react as expectations change, driven in large part by what Tesla's shown can be done. Being a lot better at profitably making flip phones only helps while people still want flip phones. And just because everyone was using flip phones in 2006 doesn't mean they would be in 2010.
- treis 8y ago
  It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive. Which goes back to the initial point about there being a race on and Tesla isn't winning it. Tesla has to increase their manufacturing by an order of magnitude before the other car companies make competitive EVs. We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over. Tesla will survive as a niche luxury brand along the lines of a BMW, but they're not going mainstream.
  - moduspol 8y ago
    > It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive. Apple had successful business in related fields before starting to sell phones, and the consumer purchase cycle for phones is much faster than cars. Unless traditional automakers take note and make big structural changes, the same pattern will happen here--only more slowly. > We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over. You're missing the point if you think being a good EV is the only significant differentiator Tesla has. It's probably only 1/3 of the things I love about this car that traditional automakers will be unable to compete with easily.

by treis 8y ago

moduspol 8y ago

Nokia was better at building phones at a profit than all its competitors until Apple entered the market. Apple changed the market for what consumers expected from phones, which Nokia failed to adapt to, and the rest is history. Traditional automakers are, indeed, much better at profitably making what consumers wanted in 2012. It's not clear how well they'll react as expectations change, driven in large part by what Tesla's shown can be done. Being a lot better at profitably making flip phones only helps while people still want flip phones. And just because everyone was using flip phones in 2006 doesn't mean they would be in 2010.

treis 8y ago
It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive. Which goes back to the initial point about there being a race on and Tesla isn't winning it. Tesla has to increase their manufacturing by an order of magnitude before the other car companies make competitive EVs. We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over. Tesla will survive as a niche luxury brand along the lines of a BMW, but they're not going mainstream.
- moduspol 8y ago
  > It only took Apple a couple years to unseat Nokia as the top phone seller. Tesla, today, still sells less than 10% of the volume of the top car makers and still struggles to be cash flow positive. Apple had successful business in related fields before starting to sell phones, and the consumer purchase cycle for phones is much faster than cars. Unless traditional automakers take note and make big structural changes, the same pattern will happen here--only more slowly. > We already are seeing legacy car makers introducing EVs so the race is all but over. You're missing the point if you think being a good EV is the only significant differentiator Tesla has. It's probably only 1/3 of the things I love about this car that traditional automakers will be unable to compete with easily.