6 ms·

Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing ou

Tesla has one more advantage over all the fossils: they're all in. The old guys are still challenged on mission, twisted up and fighting internally, bringing out weak token products designed to not hurt their ICE lines.

dagw 8y ago
I think this is probably more important than people give it credit for. I have an acquaintance who works R&D at a traditional car company (but on self driving features) he says the internal 'fights' between ICE and electric are very real and damaging.
- imglorp 8y ago
  You can experience it first hand if you go try to test drive a Chevy Bolt - Motor Trend car of the year in 2017. I spoke to dealers who (pretended?) unawareness of the model and didn't want to help me find one. Another tried to talk me out of it. Finally one dealer was well informed about its pros and cons, and had several for sale. Another example: bmw i3. 114 mile range on the 2017 model, really? And that's up from less than 100 miles before that. Painfully token.
  - rcxdude 8y ago
    The big problem the big auto manufacturers are having is the battery and cost. A mass-market electric car cannot cost as much as Tesla's offerings, and a huge part of that cost is the battery. Even with the most optimistic cost projections of battery costs in the near future, it's hard to see how to offer an electric car which is competitive on both cost and range with an ICE car.
    - imglorp 8y ago
      True, if they're going to price under Tesla, they'll need the courage to be unprofitable until they have the volume to get positive. Another issue is subsidies. Carmakers have enjoyed billions from the states... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-mazda-jobs-factbox-idUSKBN1AK2BI https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-mazda-jobs-factbox... That's not counting an $80b bailout... https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670 https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chr... And what about gas prices being artificially kept low with subsidies... https://www.nrdc.org/experts/danielle-droitsch/time-us-end-fossil-fuel-subsidies https://www.nrdc.org/experts/danielle-droitsch/time-us-end-f... So the true cost and TCO of an ICE car is not at all obvious to compute compared to an electric.
  - bluedino 8y ago
    It's just a car, to the salesman. If I went in and looked for a Chevrolet Equinox and the dealer didn't have anyt, they'd try to sell me another model. Just like if you went to Best Buy looking for a certain TV, they'll just try to sell you the one on the shelf
    - Klathmon 8y ago
      I've had on multiple occasions gone into a dealership and had them tell me that they have the car i'm asking about, but that I don't want that car, and that I want this other car instead. I went into nissan to look at the Juke a while back, the asshole wouldn't even let me look at it until I literally started leaving. He just kept pressing the Rogue saying that I'd like it a lot more... Then when he finally took me to it, it was still wrapped in plastic and they said they couldn't do a test drive. Another time I went to go look at the Chevy Bolt when it first came out, they said they had a few in stock, but they would not stop trying to get me to test drive a Malibu instead. They kept pushing how it was a better car, how it was cheaper, how it would go further, how it looks better. Eventually they let me test drive the Bolt, but the whole time the guy just kept pointing out how all the features in the car were also in the Malibu. It just left such a shitty taste in my mouth. I literally went in there asking about a single model of car each time, and it seemed like they did everything they could to actively sabotage my ability to buy it.
      - dagw 8y ago
        I went in to dealer, money in hand, to buy a specific car I knew they had in stock and that I'd already picked out. The salesman then proceeded to convince me that I actually wanted this other model which would be much better for me. Fine you've convinced me, how much for that other car. Salesman comes back a couple of minutes later and sheepishly admits they don't actually have that car in stock and won't be getting any for 4-6 weeks. I walk out without buying a car.
      - dmix 8y ago
        This is why online car shopping needs to be a thing. I experienced the exact same thing. I'm a highly informed customer who knew every car I wanted to see but almost every sales guy ignored that fact, besides at a Honda location. Which isn't surprising that I ended up with a Honda. I would have bought it online if I could and it's very possible I wouldn't have ended up with a Honda, that has to play a role in each company's auto sales.
- bpyne 8y ago
  I worked in a small sales and marketing office for IBM in the early 90's. I remember the sales people, who made very good money from mainframe sales, openly discussing how they didn't even want customers to know about RS6000's. I think the margins were pretty low on RS6000's at the time. Anyway, internal struggles holding back product lines is a very real thing.
savrajsingh 8y ago
This is a good point — remember that Kodak released some of the first digital cameras. They still failed to switch fast enough.
- raiyu 8y ago
  The shift want just digital cameras it was also the iPhone that made the digital camera obsolete. With digital cameras they were losing film revenue which was larger than camera sales. Car companies don't own gas stations so they will switch faster and easier than Kodak. There will be some struggles internally but not as much I suspect. Plus modern EVs have demonstrated more performance then ice so it's really just a matter of catering to demand as it changes. The challenge here is more on Tesla to make a sustainable car company than it is on old companies to convert. If a startup car company in Czech can make a hyper car EV that beasts a Veyron in acceleration then there is nothing proprietary about the tech and incumbents will have an easier time switching as demand evolves.
  - ghaff 8y ago
    Kodak wasn't even really a camera company latterly and hadn't been a serious camera maker since the Japanese (mostly)--who still collectively mostly own the high-end camera space--cornered the market. They were primarily a photographic consumables business. Even had they executed more aggressively and better than they did, they'd have gone through hard times. (See Fujifilm which did a better job with a smaller company and still struggled.)
  - imglorp 8y ago
    > more performance than ice In some axes, WAY more. The new Roadster 0-60 is 1.9 sec, which is 0.3 faster than everything on the production list. That list needs updating now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_cars_by_acceleration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_car...
    - mlrtime 8y ago
      The Roadster hasn't been released yet so nothing needs updating yet.
rcxdude 8y ago
From what I know of at least european car makers, they see the writing on the wall, especially with various governments making noises about banning petrol and diesel cars in the next decase or so, and they are heavily investing in the switch, even if it's not so obvious to consumers at the moment because the industry moves slowly.

dagw 8y ago

I think this is probably more important than people give it credit for. I have an acquaintance who works R&D at a traditional car company (but on self driving features) he says the internal 'fights' between ICE and electric are very real and damaging.

imglorp 8y ago
You can experience it first hand if you go try to test drive a Chevy Bolt - Motor Trend car of the year in 2017. I spoke to dealers who (pretended?) unawareness of the model and didn't want to help me find one. Another tried to talk me out of it. Finally one dealer was well informed about its pros and cons, and had several for sale. Another example: bmw i3. 114 mile range on the 2017 model, really? And that's up from less than 100 miles before that. Painfully token.
- rcxdude 8y ago
  The big problem the big auto manufacturers are having is the battery and cost. A mass-market electric car cannot cost as much as Tesla's offerings, and a huge part of that cost is the battery. Even with the most optimistic cost projections of battery costs in the near future, it's hard to see how to offer an electric car which is competitive on both cost and range with an ICE car.
  - imglorp 8y ago
    True, if they're going to price under Tesla, they'll need the courage to be unprofitable until they have the volume to get positive. Another issue is subsidies. Carmakers have enjoyed billions from the states... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-mazda-jobs-factbox-idUSKBN1AK2BI https://www.reuters.com/article/us-toyota-mazda-jobs-factbox... That's not counting an $80b bailout... https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chrysler-3305670 https://www.thebalance.com/auto-industry-bailout-gm-ford-chr... And what about gas prices being artificially kept low with subsidies... https://www.nrdc.org/experts/danielle-droitsch/time-us-end-fossil-fuel-subsidies https://www.nrdc.org/experts/danielle-droitsch/time-us-end-f... So the true cost and TCO of an ICE car is not at all obvious to compute compared to an electric.
- bluedino 8y ago
  It's just a car, to the salesman. If I went in and looked for a Chevrolet Equinox and the dealer didn't have anyt, they'd try to sell me another model. Just like if you went to Best Buy looking for a certain TV, they'll just try to sell you the one on the shelf
  - Klathmon 8y ago
    I've had on multiple occasions gone into a dealership and had them tell me that they have the car i'm asking about, but that I don't want that car, and that I want this other car instead. I went into nissan to look at the Juke a while back, the asshole wouldn't even let me look at it until I literally started leaving. He just kept pressing the Rogue saying that I'd like it a lot more... Then when he finally took me to it, it was still wrapped in plastic and they said they couldn't do a test drive. Another time I went to go look at the Chevy Bolt when it first came out, they said they had a few in stock, but they would not stop trying to get me to test drive a Malibu instead. They kept pushing how it was a better car, how it was cheaper, how it would go further, how it looks better. Eventually they let me test drive the Bolt, but the whole time the guy just kept pointing out how all the features in the car were also in the Malibu. It just left such a shitty taste in my mouth. I literally went in there asking about a single model of car each time, and it seemed like they did everything they could to actively sabotage my ability to buy it.
    - dagw 8y ago
      I went in to dealer, money in hand, to buy a specific car I knew they had in stock and that I'd already picked out. The salesman then proceeded to convince me that I actually wanted this other model which would be much better for me. Fine you've convinced me, how much for that other car. Salesman comes back a couple of minutes later and sheepishly admits they don't actually have that car in stock and won't be getting any for 4-6 weeks. I walk out without buying a car.
    - dmix 8y ago
      This is why online car shopping needs to be a thing. I experienced the exact same thing. I'm a highly informed customer who knew every car I wanted to see but almost every sales guy ignored that fact, besides at a Honda location. Which isn't surprising that I ended up with a Honda. I would have bought it online if I could and it's very possible I wouldn't have ended up with a Honda, that has to play a role in each company's auto sales.
bpyne 8y ago
I worked in a small sales and marketing office for IBM in the early 90's. I remember the sales people, who made very good money from mainframe sales, openly discussing how they didn't even want customers to know about RS6000's. I think the margins were pretty low on RS6000's at the time. Anyway, internal struggles holding back product lines is a very real thing.

savrajsingh 8y ago

This is a good point — remember that Kodak released some of the first digital cameras. They still failed to switch fast enough.

raiyu 8y ago
The shift want just digital cameras it was also the iPhone that made the digital camera obsolete. With digital cameras they were losing film revenue which was larger than camera sales. Car companies don't own gas stations so they will switch faster and easier than Kodak. There will be some struggles internally but not as much I suspect. Plus modern EVs have demonstrated more performance then ice so it's really just a matter of catering to demand as it changes. The challenge here is more on Tesla to make a sustainable car company than it is on old companies to convert. If a startup car company in Czech can make a hyper car EV that beasts a Veyron in acceleration then there is nothing proprietary about the tech and incumbents will have an easier time switching as demand evolves.
- ghaff 8y ago
  Kodak wasn't even really a camera company latterly and hadn't been a serious camera maker since the Japanese (mostly)--who still collectively mostly own the high-end camera space--cornered the market. They were primarily a photographic consumables business. Even had they executed more aggressively and better than they did, they'd have gone through hard times. (See Fujifilm which did a better job with a smaller company and still struggled.)
- imglorp 8y ago
  > more performance than ice In some axes, WAY more. The new Roadster 0-60 is 1.9 sec, which is 0.3 faster than everything on the production list. That list needs updating now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_cars_by_acceleration https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fastest_production_car...
  - mlrtime 8y ago
    The Roadster hasn't been released yet so nothing needs updating yet.

rcxdude 8y ago

From what I know of at least european car makers, they see the writing on the wall, especially with various governments making noises about banning petrol and diesel cars in the next decase or so, and they are heavily investing in the switch, even if it's not so obvious to consumers at the moment because the industry moves slowly.