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I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed. At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic red
by chriselles 7y ago
I remember seeing the horrible decline in life expectancy when the Soviet Union collapsed.
At the same time, the Soviet client state of Cuba saw a dramatic reduction in economic activity and caloric restriction. Cuban dietary belt tightening led to a massive reduction in cardio vascular disease with a correlated massive reduction in obesity.
I’m not a doctor, nor a data scientist or economist.
But I suspect we will see bifurcated life expectancy moving forward.
In the distant past when there was great wealth divide, one common denominator was similar life expectancy.
Moving forward, that same wealth divide can now be leveraged by those who can afford it to exploit the entire spectrum of longevity incremental opportunities:
Nutrition
Clean water
Clean air
Mitigating physical wear & tear
Sleep
Stress
Well being
Microbiome
Supplements
Pharmacology
Stem cell therapy
Gene therapy
CRISPR
I predict a continued flattening of average life expectancy as developing world life expectancy slowly improves and some developed countries possibly see some attrition from systemic obesity, economic disruption, and continued wealth divide.
But I see the top few % of most wealthy begin to see enhanced quality of life in their later years, as well as incrementally more years.
Longevity tech is the ultimate market.
How much will people pay for a Tesla Model Y(assuming it makes it to market)?
Something.
How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years?
Everything.
Apologies, social “scientist” talking fiction!
- keiferski 7y agoThis makes some sense in theory but in actuality people frequently avoid making decisions that would very easily allow them to live years longer. On a deeper level, the notion that humans put “the will to live” above everything else is itself problematic. See Schopenhauer’s concept of the will to live and Nietzsche’s commentary on it.
- lotsofpulp 7y ago>How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? Everything. I doubt it, most people aren't even willing to pay the small price of feeling lactic acid when exercising. Or not consuming excess calories. Quality of life matters too. If you have children, I would be surprised if most people would want to spend their personal wealth for an extra 5 to 10 geriatric bed ridden years. It only happens now because the taxpayers pay for it. I'd rather pass those resources onto my kids if it had to come out of my pocket.
- Ensorceled 7y agoA lot of people in the 90s wish they have another 10 years of being 50 and would happily live 10-20 years less time for that. Nobody is talking about ways to become a Struldbrugg, this is about extending healthy lifetime. There is a huge difference between "exercise to uncomfortableness every day and you'll probably live longer" and "give us $10M for a genetic modification treatment that extends your 50s for another 5=10 years"
- lotsofpulp 7y agoThe linked article, and presumably the person I'm replying to, are specifically talking about the maximum age a human can attain. Granted, chriselles was specifically referring to the rich extending life 5 to 10 years, but the rich are generally already living pretty long lives and I'm not sure how much more quality of life can be wrung out in the last 5 to 10 years, especially if you're having to pay a considerable amount (which would indicate you have many or complicated problems).
- AQuantized 7y agoPaying for life extension treatment is a lot easier than actively exercising/dieting, at least if you're relatively wealthy. It's different when the cause and effect is immediately apparent as well, as opposed to changing ingrained habits to effect outcomes that might be 40 - 60 years away.
- chriselles 7y agoAgreed about the choice to spend money for extra years bed ridden. But I believe we are quickly approaching a time where we will be able to purchase extra years of higher quality of life. Look at cancer drug Herceptin as an example. It doesn’t cure cancer of stop it. It just slows t down allowing the cancer victim more time at a better quality of life. I think we will see a two fold improvement with new longevity developments that mix better quality of life combined with slowly incrementally longer life. But I completely agree that the solution is not a pill. You have to invest in both work and time otherwise pharmacological inputs alone will likely be marginally effective, if at all.
- taneq 7y agoSo you're saying we should expect something like the immortal plutocrat 'Meths' in Altered Carbon? I don't doubt it. The old adage of 'you can't take it with you' will be amended to 'but if you're rich enough you don't have to go.'
- chriselles 7y agoFirstly, I’m a fan of Hard sci fi like Altered Carbon. What a great show! I don’t think we will see human consciousness slipping from body to body in our foreseeable future. If so, it surely would add yet another dimension to unbalanced wealth accumulation. But I think we are fast approaching a time where an extra 5-10 years of high quality life are within the reach of the affluent and wealthy. Perhaps starting with not so much longer life, but better life before an inevitable physiological/cognitive decline.
- xorfish 7y agoWhy would true anti aging medication be expensive? The market is huge, even with cheap medication you'd make a lot of money.
- village-idiot 7y agoWhy is insulin expensive? That market is huge.
- owenwil 7y agoIt's only expensive in the US...
- village-idiot 7y agoFair enough. But the point is that wide appeal does not guarantee low prices.
- saiya-jin 7y agoit sort of does, if you are not in US...
- village-idiot 7y agoImplying that the current economic conditions will remain as is forever is not a good bet. The current economic poison in the heart of the US could go away, or it could spread. While I have no personal experience in these matters, I have the understanding that Europe's economic situation is becoming more American like faster than the US is becoming like anyone else.
- all2 7y agoI assume dealers would use a similar model to insulin or AIDs remediations; charge as much as (in)humanly possible, rake in the dough, and give no thought to those who will die because of it.
- 7y ago
- lm28469 7y ago> How much will people pay for an extra 5-10 years? > Everything. Yeah as long as it doesn't require any effort. Exercise every day, stop alcohol, stop smoking, start eating well. You might not live longer but you'll live in good health longer, which is all that matter in the end. I'd take living until 60 in full physical and mental shape over slowly rotting in a retirement home until 90. If we truly cared about health we wouldn't accept ICE cars inside our cities, fast food, sodas, fat acceptance movements, &c. We're not killed by diseases anymore, we're killed by sloth and gluttony.
- village-idiot 7y agoThe statement wasn’t “what will people be willing to do for longevity”, the statement was “what will people be willing to pay”.
- chriselles 7y agoI do agree with you about the majority unwilling/unable to invest sufficient effort into their physical wellbeing. But I strongly believe there is a small minority of people who are making consistent choices that positively impact longevity. Anecdotally, I’m seeing it with my cohort of friends and family here in NZ as well as when visiting the US. At the age of 50, I’m already seeing clear indicators of the bifurcation between those who are taking active steps to enhance their longevity compared to those who are not. My personal opinion is that we will see single digit percentage of people who consistently take drive steps to enhance their health and well-being to enhance longevity,
- machinecoffee 7y agoAlso important will be quality of life in the later years. If you're unhealthy, lonely and constantly in pain then why bother? I've read that having a good network of friends & family into old age can keep you feeling better, having hobbies and keeping active are also very beneficial. It's something I'm actively thinking about now I'm approaching 50 myself. Swimming and yoga beckon :)
- tracker1 7y ago