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I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former,

I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. Some analysts are saying random things like impact of tax credit and competition coming in to EV market. I still don't see anything close to Tesla offering in EV space, at least in US. They really need to focus on offering EV at $18K price point with 300 mile range. Keep self-driving stuff for later. I love Tesla and hope they would come through this.

jaabe 8y ago
EV are still too expensive and Tesla ridiculously so. That’s not a problem if you can’t keep up with demand, but competition creeps up. Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less? We need better leadership though. I live in Denmark where EVs aren’t very widespread because of taxes. In Norway more than half of new vehicles sold are EV. Norway has more money than us, but they didn’t really need it for this transition and nothing they did are things we couldn’t have. They simply had better political leadership than we do. I know some Americans might call free market, but we have 150 years of history to show that big advances in society are driven mainly by the public sector if they are to benefit all and happen quickly.
- _ph_ 8y ago
  First of all, you basically cannot buy a Hyundai. The production is far below Model 3 levels. Here in Germany, you are looking at 12 months wait time due to demand far exceeding supply. Also, the Model 3 is a very attractive offering. It is the faster car, aims at the typical BMW audience, and most of all, has the supercharger network available.
  - neuronic 8y ago
    As another German I can definitely tell you that no one here sees a Model 3 at anywhere near a BMW in production quality. If Tesla intends to market the Model 3 at the "BMW audience" - whatever differentiates them from, say, the "Audi audience" - they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. It is not limited to EV range. Also, Volkswagen is ramping up production on their Modular Electric Drive Matrix (MEB) [1] and within 2-3 years cars with this technology will hit the market. I wonder if Tesla can keep up when Volkswagen, Toyota or other car heavy weights begin serious EV production once they belief the market is ready. Diesel sales are better then ever in the last years, so they simply could afford to wait and continue to make money until infrastructure ramps up and technology improves. Tesla cannot do that. [1] https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/modular-electric-drive-matrix-meb-3677 https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/modular-electric-driv...
    - reacharavindh 8y ago
      Do you have any info about VW's batteries? If they are building up MEB for the next 2-3 years, they should have some idea of what they are going to do about batteries by now right? So far, it appears that batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency. VW would be a dumb competitor if it comes out in 2-3 years with a car that costs as much or more than a Tesla with only 60% of its range.... there is risk for VW as well here..
      - _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
        Several tests comparing Tesla with NIO show that the efficiency is the same, so not sure about "batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency."
        bryanlarsen 8y ago
        Niro has efficiency but it's fast charging and acceleration is considerably worse than Tesla's. eTron has fast charging and acceleration but efficiency is considerably worse than Telsa's.
        _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
        Thanks didn't know, was just replying to the parents "efficiency" argument.
    - abalone 8y ago
      > they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. Can you be more specific? What are Teslas lacking for the German market?
      - jakobegger 8y ago
        Not a German, but we Austrians love wagons and hatchbacks. Sedans are something that only old people drive here. A car with a tiny trunk like the Model 3 is no good for driving on vacation with the kids.
  - Roark66 8y ago
    >Also, the Model 3 is a very attractive offering. It is the faster car, aims at the typical BMW audience Until you find out your range goes down significantly when you drive fast... I was seriously considering tesla model 3 as most of my trips are below 40 miles, but occasionally I do need to drive to another city 200 miles away, and when I do I want to be able to drive at the same speed I normally use at the motorway (around 90-95mph, or 150km/h). Tesla model 3 will give you less than 100 miles of range at that speed and that is what will kill Tesla for many people who currently drive VWs and BMWs.
    - gibolt 8y ago
      Most cars at that speed will get significantly reduced range, due to engine inefficiency and drag. Even then, a battery with 220 mile range should still get well over 100 in reality .
    - _ph_ 8y ago
      I don't know where you got your numbers from, but according to next move it has about 200 miles of range at 150km/h, going ever so slightly slower (and you probably will have sections with a speed limit anyway in between) would let you comfortably make the trip: https://nextmove.de/tesla-model-3-reichweitentest-bei-150-vs-120-km-h-auf-autobahn/ https://nextmove.de/tesla-model-3-reichweitentest-bei-150-vs...
- whttheuuu 8y ago
  "Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" Lol, is this a serious question?
  - dagw 8y ago
    is this a serious question? Of course it is. Saving a lot of money on a car means you can spend a lot of money on other things you enjoy. So why would you pay a lot of money to drive a Tesla instead of a Hyundai? Because the Tesla looks better? Drives better? Has better safety features? Is more reliable? Has a higher status value? I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons to buy a Tesla instead of Hyundai and had they cost the same then sure I'd buy a Tesla as well. But if I was in the market for a new electric car then "Why buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" would definitely be a serious question I would be asking myself and I'm not sure I would come up with a good answer (or at least not a better answer than Tesla's are cool).
    - matthewdgreen 8y ago
      >I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons to buy a Tesla instead of Hyundai and had they cost the same then sure I'd buy a Tesla as well. The MSRP on the base-model Kona is $36,950, which is a bit less than the $39,500 Tesla SR+, but not dramatically. The next level of trim above the base model Kona is $41,500, and doesn't seem to add any significant features (LED headlamps, etc., which Tesla already has.) The highest level of Kona trim is $44,900, which is only $5k less than the Tesla Long Range model! My suspicion is that, given the low production numbers, Hyundai is going to focus primarily on selling the more expensive models. In practice this means (with a few lucky exceptions) you're looking at Tesla prices to get a Hyundai.
      - dagw 8y ago
        Fair enough. I was looking at the prices here in Sweden and here the base model Kona is ~$18k cheaper than the base model SR+.
  - oblio 8y ago
- pbreit 8y ago
  "Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" Sorry, but this is just a completely dumb question/statement. People buy 5x the number of Teslas than Konas because they Teslas are much, much more delightful.
  - hyperbovine 8y ago
    > People buy 5x the number of Teslas than Konas because they Teslas are much, much more delightful. Sorry, but this is just a completely dumb statement. The reason Tesla sales are higher is partly because Hyundai literally cannot meet the demand for this car (https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/11/hyundai-reassures-dealers-as-battery-shortage-adds-dark-clouds-to-kona-electric-launch/ https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/11/hyundai-reassures-...). Economics is a real phenomenon, and way more people would rather have basic transportation + an extra $80k in their pocket than be “delighted” by owning a P100D.
    - pbreit 8y ago
      It does seem there is decent demand for Kona EV. Perhaps you were not aware of Tesla's Model 3 which is the same price as a Kona EV and much, much nicer. And not battery constrained.
    - Phase_White 8y ago
      Hyundai does not want to meet the demand for the car because it is a compliance car and they are losing money on each sale.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
_pmf_ 8y ago
> Or is it because demand is dying? The demand was for something that they no longer sell.
- shimms 8y ago
  Two things: The demand for the semi-premium model outweighed the standard by 6 to 1, so no, the demand is right where the new obvious entry model is. It is still technically available, but not in any obvious way (if you weren’t to already know, it’d be fair enough to assume it wasn’t available anymore).
  - dannyw 8y ago
    That’s because they called literally every SR purchaser and hard sold them to get SR+; and said SR was many months away from delivery.
    - jsight 8y ago
      That was part of it, but also an extra $2,500 for 20 miles more range and a much nicer car was a very appealing offer. I certainly would have taken it.
navigatesol 8y ago
>I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. That's what you conclude after seeing them produce more cars than they delivered last quarter, with inventory build-ups all over the country, and quarter-over-quarter decrease in revenues, even though they slashed prices? That they still can't keep up with demand?
tonyedgecombe 8y ago
I suspect we are still quite a few years away from an $18K EV, maybe even a decade. I wonder if the industry might have been better off focusing on plugin hybrids to start with, you can get most of the benefits whilst battery production ramps up and costs fall.
lazyjones 8y ago
There's also a general slump in car sales in Tesla's main M3 markets lately: https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-international-worldwide-car-sales/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-...
jsight 8y ago
They are slightly overproducing the SR+ (with fewer battery cells) and slight underproducing the LR (with more cells). What does that tell you about supply constraints?

jaabe 8y ago

EV are still too expensive and Tesla ridiculously so. That’s not a problem if you can’t keep up with demand, but competition creeps up. Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less? We need better leadership though. I live in Denmark where EVs aren’t very widespread because of taxes. In Norway more than half of new vehicles sold are EV. Norway has more money than us, but they didn’t really need it for this transition and nothing they did are things we couldn’t have. They simply had better political leadership than we do. I know some Americans might call free market, but we have 150 years of history to show that big advances in society are driven mainly by the public sector if they are to benefit all and happen quickly.

_ph_ 8y ago
First of all, you basically cannot buy a Hyundai. The production is far below Model 3 levels. Here in Germany, you are looking at 12 months wait time due to demand far exceeding supply. Also, the Model 3 is a very attractive offering. It is the faster car, aims at the typical BMW audience, and most of all, has the supercharger network available.
- neuronic 8y ago
  As another German I can definitely tell you that no one here sees a Model 3 at anywhere near a BMW in production quality. If Tesla intends to market the Model 3 at the "BMW audience" - whatever differentiates them from, say, the "Audi audience" - they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. It is not limited to EV range. Also, Volkswagen is ramping up production on their Modular Electric Drive Matrix (MEB) [1] and within 2-3 years cars with this technology will hit the market. I wonder if Tesla can keep up when Volkswagen, Toyota or other car heavy weights begin serious EV production once they belief the market is ready. Diesel sales are better then ever in the last years, so they simply could afford to wait and continue to make money until infrastructure ramps up and technology improves. Tesla cannot do that. [1] https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/modular-electric-drive-matrix-meb-3677 https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/modular-electric-driv...
  - reacharavindh 8y ago
    Do you have any info about VW's batteries? If they are building up MEB for the next 2-3 years, they should have some idea of what they are going to do about batteries by now right? So far, it appears that batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency. VW would be a dumb competitor if it comes out in 2-3 years with a car that costs as much or more than a Tesla with only 60% of its range.... there is risk for VW as well here..
    - _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
      Several tests comparing Tesla with NIO show that the efficiency is the same, so not sure about "batteries and drive train efficiency are the secret to Tesla's dominance in efficiency."
      - bryanlarsen 8y ago
        Niro has efficiency but it's fast charging and acceleration is considerably worse than Tesla's. eTron has fast charging and acceleration but efficiency is considerably worse than Telsa's.
        _Codemonkeyism 8y ago
        Thanks didn't know, was just replying to the parents "efficiency" argument.
  - abalone 8y ago
    > they are horribly miscalculating at what German people expect from a car. Can you be more specific? What are Teslas lacking for the German market?
    - jakobegger 8y ago
      Not a German, but we Austrians love wagons and hatchbacks. Sedans are something that only old people drive here. A car with a tiny trunk like the Model 3 is no good for driving on vacation with the kids.
- Roark66 8y ago
  >Also, the Model 3 is a very attractive offering. It is the faster car, aims at the typical BMW audience Until you find out your range goes down significantly when you drive fast... I was seriously considering tesla model 3 as most of my trips are below 40 miles, but occasionally I do need to drive to another city 200 miles away, and when I do I want to be able to drive at the same speed I normally use at the motorway (around 90-95mph, or 150km/h). Tesla model 3 will give you less than 100 miles of range at that speed and that is what will kill Tesla for many people who currently drive VWs and BMWs.
  - gibolt 8y ago
    Most cars at that speed will get significantly reduced range, due to engine inefficiency and drag. Even then, a battery with 220 mile range should still get well over 100 in reality .
  - _ph_ 8y ago
    I don't know where you got your numbers from, but according to next move it has about 200 miles of range at 150km/h, going ever so slightly slower (and you probably will have sections with a speed limit anyway in between) would let you comfortably make the trip: https://nextmove.de/tesla-model-3-reichweitentest-bei-150-vs-120-km-h-auf-autobahn/ https://nextmove.de/tesla-model-3-reichweitentest-bei-150-vs...
whttheuuu 8y ago
"Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" Lol, is this a serious question?
- dagw 8y ago
  is this a serious question? Of course it is. Saving a lot of money on a car means you can spend a lot of money on other things you enjoy. So why would you pay a lot of money to drive a Tesla instead of a Hyundai? Because the Tesla looks better? Drives better? Has better safety features? Is more reliable? Has a higher status value? I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons to buy a Tesla instead of Hyundai and had they cost the same then sure I'd buy a Tesla as well. But if I was in the market for a new electric car then "Why buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" would definitely be a serious question I would be asking myself and I'm not sure I would come up with a good answer (or at least not a better answer than Tesla's are cool).
  - matthewdgreen 8y ago
    >I'm not saying that there aren't good reasons to buy a Tesla instead of Hyundai and had they cost the same then sure I'd buy a Tesla as well. The MSRP on the base-model Kona is $36,950, which is a bit less than the $39,500 Tesla SR+, but not dramatically. The next level of trim above the base model Kona is $41,500, and doesn't seem to add any significant features (LED headlamps, etc., which Tesla already has.) The highest level of Kona trim is $44,900, which is only $5k less than the Tesla Long Range model! My suspicion is that, given the low production numbers, Hyundai is going to focus primarily on selling the more expensive models. In practice this means (with a few lucky exceptions) you're looking at Tesla prices to get a Hyundai.
    - dagw 8y ago
      Fair enough. I was looking at the prices here in Sweden and here the base model Kona is ~$18k cheaper than the base model SR+.
- oblio 8y ago
pbreit 8y ago
"Why would you buy a Tesla when you can buy a Hyundai Kona for a lot less?" Sorry, but this is just a completely dumb question/statement. People buy 5x the number of Teslas than Konas because they Teslas are much, much more delightful.
- hyperbovine 8y ago
  > People buy 5x the number of Teslas than Konas because they Teslas are much, much more delightful. Sorry, but this is just a completely dumb statement. The reason Tesla sales are higher is partly because Hyundai literally cannot meet the demand for this car (https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/11/hyundai-reassures-dealers-as-battery-shortage-adds-dark-clouds-to-kona-electric-launch/ https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2018/11/hyundai-reassures-...). Economics is a real phenomenon, and way more people would rather have basic transportation + an extra $80k in their pocket than be “delighted” by owning a P100D.
  - pbreit 8y ago
    It does seem there is decent demand for Kona EV. Perhaps you were not aware of Tesla's Model 3 which is the same price as a Kona EV and much, much nicer. And not battery constrained.
  - Phase_White 8y ago
    Hyundai does not want to meet the demand for the car because it is a compliance car and they are losing money on each sale.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]

_pmf_ 8y ago

> Or is it because demand is dying? The demand was for something that they no longer sell.

shimms 8y ago
Two things: The demand for the semi-premium model outweighed the standard by 6 to 1, so no, the demand is right where the new obvious entry model is. It is still technically available, but not in any obvious way (if you weren’t to already know, it’d be fair enough to assume it wasn’t available anymore).
- dannyw 8y ago
  That’s because they called literally every SR purchaser and hard sold them to get SR+; and said SR was many months away from delivery.
  - jsight 8y ago
    That was part of it, but also an extra $2,500 for 20 miles more range and a much nicer car was a very appealing offer. I certainly would have taken it.

navigatesol 8y ago

>I'm still trying to figure out the root cause. Is it because, production is not keeping up to demand? Or is it because demand is dying? So far it seems former, not later. That's what you conclude after seeing them produce more cars than they delivered last quarter, with inventory build-ups all over the country, and quarter-over-quarter decrease in revenues, even though they slashed prices? That they still can't keep up with demand?

tonyedgecombe 8y ago

I suspect we are still quite a few years away from an $18K EV, maybe even a decade. I wonder if the industry might have been better off focusing on plugin hybrids to start with, you can get most of the benefits whilst battery production ramps up and costs fall.

lazyjones 8y ago

There's also a general slump in car sales in Tesla's main M3 markets lately: https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-international-worldwide-car-sales/ https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-...

jsight 8y ago

They are slightly overproducing the SR+ (with fewer battery cells) and slight underproducing the LR (with more cells). What does that tell you about supply constraints?