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Google "tesla profit over time". You'll see losses from 2011-2013 (12 quarters or so) and a profit, that was the ramp up to the model S. Then a series of loss

by sliken 8y ago

Google "tesla profit over time". You'll see losses from 2011-2013 (12 quarters or so) and a profit, that was the ramp up to the model S. Then a series of losses up to 2016 (13 quarters) where they shipped the model X. Then a series of losses up to 2018 (7 quarters) then 2 quarters of profit for the model 3. So generally Tesla has large costs for expanding battery production and new assembly lines for new models, and then starts profiting. Their annual production is heavily up (277,000 in the last 4 quarters). If they stopped expanding they would be quite profitable. Given that their most popular car is very likely to be the model Y (at least in the USA the crossover/small SUV is by far the most popular). Things look pretty promising for Tesla.

tertius 8y ago
> If they stopped expanding they would be quite profitable. That's like saying if I stop eating I'd lose weight. Yes, but pretty soon I'll die. If they need to invest 1b to make 100m we know where that ends up. They can't scale back in the long term. Well, they can but they're not doing it right. It's hard to fix manufacturing after you're in the hole as deep as they are.
- sliken 8y ago
  I don't follow, stolen from another comment on this post: Quarter: Model 3 shipped ======= ============ Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 If Tesla stopped hugely spending R&D for new products and new products they would be quite profitable. Keep in mind that 63,000 model 3 cars were likely on average $52k = $3.25B. 20% gross margin = $693M. Ah, found the actual number, automotive revenue = $ 3,723,861,000 but that includes the model X and Y as well as the 3. Sure there would be some expense keeping the products up to date, but nothing like what is required to ramp up volumes and adding products like they have been doing. So basically Tesla has been heavily reinvesting their revenue into future growth... and it's been working. If needed, they could slow growth and increase profit. Many of the Tesla competitors in the luxury segment would LOVE to fail and "only" ship 63,000 cars costing $50k each. Tesla doesn't need new factories and products to not die, they could easily exist by keeping the model 3, S, and X up to date. Seems a poor decision to not finish the Y, but they could greatly reduce costs by changing an existing model 3 production line into a model Y production line. The cost should be greatly reduced since they share around 75% of the same parts. So why can't they scale back? They just repaid $920M, they have $2.2B on hand, and had a automobile revenue of $3.7B with a 20% gross margin this quarter. I don't get the "hole" they are in. Sure they will likely need loans to grow as crazy fast as they are (from last place to first in 7 years in the luxury/premium segment). But they could decide to just grow slower, why would that kill them?

by sliken 8y ago

tertius 8y ago

> If they stopped expanding they would be quite profitable. That's like saying if I stop eating I'd lose weight. Yes, but pretty soon I'll die. If they need to invest 1b to make 100m we know where that ends up. They can't scale back in the long term. Well, they can but they're not doing it right. It's hard to fix manufacturing after you're in the hole as deep as they are.

sliken 8y ago
I don't follow, stolen from another comment on this post: Quarter: Model 3 shipped ======= ============ Q1 2019: 63,000 Q1 2018: 29,980 Q1 2017: 25,000 Q1 2016: 14,820 Q1 2015: 10,045 Q1 2014: 6,457 Q1 2013: 4,900 Q1 2012: 0 If Tesla stopped hugely spending R&D for new products and new products they would be quite profitable. Keep in mind that 63,000 model 3 cars were likely on average $52k = $3.25B. 20% gross margin = $693M. Ah, found the actual number, automotive revenue = $ 3,723,861,000 but that includes the model X and Y as well as the 3. Sure there would be some expense keeping the products up to date, but nothing like what is required to ramp up volumes and adding products like they have been doing. So basically Tesla has been heavily reinvesting their revenue into future growth... and it's been working. If needed, they could slow growth and increase profit. Many of the Tesla competitors in the luxury segment would LOVE to fail and "only" ship 63,000 cars costing $50k each. Tesla doesn't need new factories and products to not die, they could easily exist by keeping the model 3, S, and X up to date. Seems a poor decision to not finish the Y, but they could greatly reduce costs by changing an existing model 3 production line into a model Y production line. The cost should be greatly reduced since they share around 75% of the same parts. So why can't they scale back? They just repaid $920M, they have $2.2B on hand, and had a automobile revenue of $3.7B with a 20% gross margin this quarter. I don't get the "hole" they are in. Sure they will likely need loans to grow as crazy fast as they are (from last place to first in 7 years in the luxury/premium segment). But they could decide to just grow slower, why would that kill them?