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This is exactly right. I'm bearish on Tesla, and frequently criticise it. But I only care because I was an unashamed fanboy earlier in life. Musk kept flipping

This is exactly right. I'm bearish on Tesla, and frequently criticise it. But I only care because I was an unashamed fanboy earlier in life. Musk kept flipping the coin to bet the company, and succeeded against all odds. It was riveting to watch. But once Tesla got large... nothing changed. He's still flipping. Model 3? Flip. Automated factory? Flip. Autonomous driving? Flip. 420? Flip. Solar City? Flip. Tesla is a single misstep away from bankruptcy, and it need not be. I no longer see him as someone undeterred by the odds to achieve something great, but more like a narcissistic gambler. He's not taking risks to achieve a goal, the risks are the goal. His Twitter antics don't help. The only thing that makes it ok is that competition is legitimately catching up now. Maybe not in the smart car arena, but we are seeing real electrified competition. I don't give a fuck if people buy cars with a cute UI or not. I do care that we move to electrification. If Tesla dies, the latter will happen at a largely uninterrupted schedule with the state of the industry in 2019. I love the idea of legislation that moves that along faster. I'd happily take a tax hike to make it happen. Tesla fans love to hate on the "shorts" as if the only possible motivation to criticize Tesla is profit based. To that strawman I've blatantly constructed I hypocritically reply: stop arguing against strawmen.

electriclove 8y ago
I agree with a lot of what you've said here but I don't think anyone is legitimately catching up. There are all kinds of announcements but no one else really building EVs in the US in volume: https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s... We are getting close though but need Tesla to keep the pressure on for a couple more years.
- reitzensteinm 8y ago
  It's going to take time for the industry to ramp up volumes, but my sense is the commitment is there now. Many EU countries are banning new ICEs in just 11 years; that's not a lot of time to make a full transition. If Tesla went bankrupt tomorrow, I don't think the overall ramp would slow down much, and it'll ultimately end with production far higher than what Tesla alone can achieve. If Tesla (and Nissan) never existed, this entire timeline may have been offset by 5-10 years. I believe they deserve credit for lighting the fire, but by now it's self sustaining.
- wil421 8y ago
  The big ones are doing things at a scale Tesla can only dream of. It takes a lot of time to change production lines and the big ones don’t have much incentives to switch off ICE. The governments need to help us here. Ford sold one million F-150s last year. A F-150 every 29 seconds. That’s only one model. Without going off on a tangent, large companies aren’t able to innovate like smaller companies can. They prefer to buy or partner with smaller company to build someone, Mazda developed the old Ford Ranger. Ford just invested $500m in Rivian.

electriclove 8y ago

I agree with a lot of what you've said here but I don't think anyone is legitimately catching up. There are all kinds of announcements but no one else really building EVs in the US in volume: https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/ https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-s... We are getting close though but need Tesla to keep the pressure on for a couple more years.

reitzensteinm 8y ago
It's going to take time for the industry to ramp up volumes, but my sense is the commitment is there now. Many EU countries are banning new ICEs in just 11 years; that's not a lot of time to make a full transition. If Tesla went bankrupt tomorrow, I don't think the overall ramp would slow down much, and it'll ultimately end with production far higher than what Tesla alone can achieve. If Tesla (and Nissan) never existed, this entire timeline may have been offset by 5-10 years. I believe they deserve credit for lighting the fire, but by now it's self sustaining.
wil421 8y ago
The big ones are doing things at a scale Tesla can only dream of. It takes a lot of time to change production lines and the big ones don’t have much incentives to switch off ICE. The governments need to help us here. Ford sold one million F-150s last year. A F-150 every 29 seconds. That’s only one model. Without going off on a tangent, large companies aren’t able to innovate like smaller companies can. They prefer to buy or partner with smaller company to build someone, Mazda developed the old Ford Ranger. Ford just invested $500m in Rivian.