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It likely is, but I do wonder how much QE has played into permanently raising the prices of assets. I won't make that bet, but it could very well be years befo

It likely is, but I do wonder how much QE has played into permanently raising the prices of assets. I won't make that bet, but it could very well be years before something major happens.

rapsey 7y ago
So many companies doing IPOs lately, seems to me we are reaching a top. Private money running out, lets go for public.
- charlesdm 7y ago
  For tech, yes. But does that mean the whole economy or tech sector goes into a recession? I.e. will the fact that Uber tanks after IPO have an effect on Apple?
  - rapsey 7y ago
    2008 was a housing bubble and it cut everyone at the knees.
    - T-A 7y ago
      Housing is a huge component of the US economy. Total value in 2018: $33.3 trillion [1], 1.6x GDP (20.9 trillion) [2]. Tech is about 5% of GDP [3]. [1] https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market-value-climbs-to-333-trillion-in-2018 https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market... [2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-how-to-use-them-3306041 https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-h... [3] http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tech-sector http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tec...
      - opportune 7y ago
        You're comparing the total value of all housing to GDP vs. an actual percent of GDP. That's not an apples to apples comparison. A quick lookup tells me construction is about 4% of GDP. And financing/ancillary services for that construction, if I had to estimate, might make up another 2% at most. Which is pretty close to tech
        T-A 7y ago
        Yes, but what happened in 2008, and caused the crisis referred to by rapsey, was that housing lost a large fraction of its value. It was not a drop in construction, financing etc that tanked the economy; it was the loss of value, which left a giant hole in balance sheets. The apples-to-oranges comparison was introduced by rapsey, I merely provided the numbers.
- swarnie_ 7y ago
  Some real stinkers as well (although some ok ones). My guess is that Uber will be the poster child that kills this IPO season or at least comes to define it.

It likely is, but I do wonder how much QE has played into permanently raising the prices of assets. I won't make that bet, but it could very well be years before something major happens.

rapsey 7y ago

So many companies doing IPOs lately, seems to me we are reaching a top. Private money running out, lets go for public.

charlesdm 7y ago
For tech, yes. But does that mean the whole economy or tech sector goes into a recession? I.e. will the fact that Uber tanks after IPO have an effect on Apple?
- rapsey 7y ago
  2008 was a housing bubble and it cut everyone at the knees.
  - T-A 7y ago
    Housing is a huge component of the US economy. Total value in 2018: $33.3 trillion [1], 1.6x GDP (20.9 trillion) [2]. Tech is about 5% of GDP [3]. [1] https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market-value-climbs-to-333-trillion-in-2018 https://www.housingwire.com/articles/47847-us-housing-market... [2] https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-how-to-use-them-3306041 https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-gdp-5-latest-statistics-and-h... [3] http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tech-sector http://www.ianhathaway.org/blog/2017/5/31/how-big-is-the-tec...
    - opportune 7y ago
      You're comparing the total value of all housing to GDP vs. an actual percent of GDP. That's not an apples to apples comparison. A quick lookup tells me construction is about 4% of GDP. And financing/ancillary services for that construction, if I had to estimate, might make up another 2% at most. Which is pretty close to tech
      - T-A 7y ago
        Yes, but what happened in 2008, and caused the crisis referred to by rapsey, was that housing lost a large fraction of its value. It was not a drop in construction, financing etc that tanked the economy; it was the loss of value, which left a giant hole in balance sheets. The apples-to-oranges comparison was introduced by rapsey, I merely provided the numbers.
swarnie_ 7y ago
Some real stinkers as well (although some ok ones). My guess is that Uber will be the poster child that kills this IPO season or at least comes to define it.