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I just see this as part of the impending economic downturn. Ads are always the first to go.

microcolonel 7y ago
That's an interesting thought, is this just a hunch or have you looked at data/analyses that say ads dieth before the fall?
- cprayingmantis 7y ago
  It's just something I've always heard other talking about. Although I started to look into it and there is some that believe it doesn't lag or lead that it's directly tied to GDP. The fate of the ad industry is directly tied to the overall economy, says Brian Wieser, senior analyst at Pivotal Research Group. That means when GDP falls, advertising falls in unison; it's neither a leading indicator before a downturn nor lagging indicator trailing the overall economy's performance, he says. "All of a sudden, a crisis is a good time to reassess all your behavior," Wieser says. "Advertisers scrutinize their budgets much more than they did in the past." From this article: https://adage.com/article/tech/industry-executives-report-uptick-talk-a-downturn/316309 https://adage.com/article/tech/industry-executives-report-up... Thanks for spurring me to dig into this a bit more.
echelon 7y ago
What signals are you using to determine this? How bad is it going to get?
- seppin 7y ago
  (he doesn't know)
  - cprayingmantis 7y ago
    You're right.
- cprayingmantis 7y ago
  Seppin is right I don't know for sure but their are some indicators that you can watch. Bond yield curve inverting is one. Although there are some contrarians that are saying this time is different. The other big signal I look at is employment numbers in areas where raw materials are produced and refined. I've not done much reading on it but I've seen it as a leading indicator. Please take everything I saw with a grain of salt I'm not an economist I just try to keep up.
qwerty2020 7y ago
Article doesn't reference anything re: overall ad spend being down, just ad spend for newspapers specifically. Overall spend looks to be growing [1] so would assume people investing in more efficient channels. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spending-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spend...
- cprayingmantis 7y ago
  Yeah I guess my idea was more along the thought that as ads get less and less effective that the least efficient methods go first.

That's an interesting thought, is this just a hunch or have you looked at data/analyses that say ads dieth before the fall?

cprayingmantis 7y ago
It's just something I've always heard other talking about. Although I started to look into it and there is some that believe it doesn't lag or lead that it's directly tied to GDP. The fate of the ad industry is directly tied to the overall economy, says Brian Wieser, senior analyst at Pivotal Research Group. That means when GDP falls, advertising falls in unison; it's neither a leading indicator before a downturn nor lagging indicator trailing the overall economy's performance, he says. "All of a sudden, a crisis is a good time to reassess all your behavior," Wieser says. "Advertisers scrutinize their budgets much more than they did in the past." From this article: https://adage.com/article/tech/industry-executives-report-uptick-talk-a-downturn/316309 https://adage.com/article/tech/industry-executives-report-up... Thanks for spurring me to dig into this a bit more.

echelon 7y ago

What signals are you using to determine this? How bad is it going to get?

seppin 7y ago
(he doesn't know)
- cprayingmantis 7y ago
  You're right.
cprayingmantis 7y ago
Seppin is right I don't know for sure but their are some indicators that you can watch. Bond yield curve inverting is one. Although there are some contrarians that are saying this time is different. The other big signal I look at is employment numbers in areas where raw materials are produced and refined. I've not done much reading on it but I've seen it as a leading indicator. Please take everything I saw with a grain of salt I'm not an economist I just try to keep up.

qwerty2020 7y ago

Article doesn't reference anything re: overall ad spend being down, just ad spend for newspapers specifically. Overall spend looks to be growing [1] so would assume people investing in more efficient channels. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spending-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/272314/advertising-spend...

cprayingmantis 7y ago
Yeah I guess my idea was more along the thought that as ads get less and less effective that the least efficient methods go first.