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My prediction: Tesla will stop selling cars to the public by 2023. Why would they? their whole plan from the beginning was to do a reverse Uber - a fleet of se
by LAMike 7y ago
My prediction: Tesla will stop selling cars to the public by 2023.
Why would they? their whole plan from the beginning was to do a reverse Uber - a fleet of self driving cars that acts as a taxi service.
Cost of a model 3 to TSLA: 25k
Average Revenue per year for self driving taxi: $12/hr * 24 * 365 = 105k
Producing just 100k cars a year for this program would generate 10B dollars a year in revenue, if they can make 1M cars a year, it's 100B... making TSLA a trillion dollar company even with a Ford valuation.
Most of that revenue will be more profitable than a gas powered car since they also own an energy company, and the software that runs the cars.
(Very glad I got a reservation worth of stock when the Model 3 was announced a few years ago, so I am biased)
- 6d6b73 7y agoFirst mistake you're making is that people will trust FSD from the get go. It will take time for people to get used ot driving self-driving cars, so 2023 is unrealistic. Second is assuming that they really are close to solving Level 4/5 driving (imho they are not). 3. There is no way that the cars will be able to drive 24/7/365. You need to charge them, clean, and do maintenance. 4. Supply and demand - there will be competition, and some of it from companies with very deep pockets. 6. With all the issues Tesla is having right now, it's not likely that they will survive until 2023
- dboreham 7y ago>Producing just 100k cars a year for this program would generate 10B dollars a year in revenue No competition fallacy. If some market exists that's $<huge>, you can only sustain a high profit margin in serving that market if there are no competitors (which seems unlikely). Also falling into the "self driving is possible" fallacy..