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Tesla's "maybe someday it will be capable of full self-driving" computer is now in all new cars. Also, Full Self Driving is a marketing term that may or may not

by jpm_sd 8y ago

Tesla's "maybe someday it will be capable of full self-driving" computer is now in all new cars. Also, Full Self Driving is a marketing term that may or may not ever mean Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
The progress is real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo
- century19 8y ago
  It overtakes a few cars on the inside in that video. Is that allowed?
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    In the US, yes. EDIT: Not all of the US, see below.
    - dboreham 8y ago
      I think it depends on the state. In California, yes.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        https://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/40365/in-what-states-is-the-left-lane-only-for-passing https://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/40365/in-what-sta... http://www.mit.edu/~jfc/right.html http://www.mit.edu/~jfc/right.html States where it is illegal to pass on the right: Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey (My note: In 20 years of driving in Illinois, I have never been cited for passing on the right)
  - fourmajor 8y ago
    The car was going 75 MPH as far as I could tell. A bit fast. But generally it seems to be keeping in line with DMV guidelines. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/hdbk/traffic_lanes https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/hdbk/traffic_l...
    - ModernMech 8y ago
      DMV guidelines are that it's okay to pass on the right doing 75 in a 65?
    - century19 8y ago
      That link seems to say that you must pass on the left unless "An open highway is clearly marked for two or more lanes of travel in your direction." and another reason. I guess the multi-lane open highway is the reason it's ok? Does that make those multi-lane open highways a free for all? No concept of a fast lane, overtake wherever you choose?
  - cmurf 8y ago
    Depends on the state. In Colorado passing on the right is legal (though I personally find it barbaric). However, Colorado has a "left lane law" that applies on two+ lane highways with speed limits above 65mph. It is illegal to impede traffic in the passing lane, even if you're going the speed limit. https://codes.findlaw.com/co/title-42-vehicles-and-traffic/co-rev-st-sect-42-4-1013.html https://codes.findlaw.com/co/title-42-vehicles-and-traffic/c... A different law requires drivers in the passing lane driving below normal and reasonable speed, to change lanes (move to the right or pull off the road). If you're driving at the speed limit, it's by definition not less than normal or reasonable. And prior to the "left lane law" state patrol couldn't do anything about impeded left lane traffic so long as the impeding vehicle was moving at the speed limit, but since the 2004 "left lane law" you can be ticketed for impeding traffic in the passing lane even if you're driving at the speed limit (and you were always subject to ticketing if you were driving below the speed limit in the passing lane).
- danso 8y ago
  How does that video show more progress than the self-driving demo that's been on the Tesla Autopilot homepage since 2016 [0]? The 2016 version seems to feature much more in-town driving, including interaction with pedestrians, whereas the newest demo seems to be mostly highway driving? [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG68SKoG7vE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG68SKoG7vE
- KaiserPro 8y ago
  Not really. Rolling around a road, in broad daylight, with no adverse conditions and no "interesting" events isn't progress. yes, merging onto a freeway is mildly impressive, but its not anywhere near state of the art. What I'd like to see is what happens when someone swerves out in front of the car? does it stop dead? or panic and hand back control to the driver, just in time to crash? What about rain, or snow? How does it handle diversions? what about new roads? None of this is really about hardware, sure more power helps, as does sensors with lower noise floors and greater pre-processing. The difficult part is, and has always been, software. What Tesla is doing is knowingly allow people to to unsafe software to gather scenarios that can be used as learning events. Not only that, they are getting people to pay a premium. I imagine that tesla will then rent the next generation of trained models back to the drivers, even though they paid for, and provided the training set.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    > What Tesla is doing is knowingly allow people to to unsafe software to gather scenarios that can be used as learning events. Not only that, they are getting people to pay a premium. I imagine that tesla will then rent the next generation of trained models back to the drivers, even though they paid for, and provided the training set. As a Model S owner with over 10k miles on Autopilot, I take issue with you calling the software unsafe (I have never once had a disengagement that caused a safety issue), and I am happy to pay a premium to contribute to what I consider progress. I would happily pay more. Waymo vehicles aren't available to anyone buy a few beta testers. Tesla Autopilot neural net improvements are available to everyone in the fleet.
    - KaiserPro 8y ago
      I am glad you are happy. As someone who paid >$100k for a new car, of course you are going to get _free_ upgrades. But, it is immoral to ship something thats barely level 2 and market it as an autopilot. Yes, they have made great strides, but tesla basically gambled that no one would crash. This is the issue I have with our industry. That kind of slapdash "lets work 100 hour weeks and ship anyway, yes the target is impossible but a broken MVP is better than no MVP" is fine for a webapp. But for life critical software, no, no its not.
- dangrossman 8y ago
  That video is less impressive than the one they released in 2016 using off-the-shelf hardware and software from Nvidia. The only progress it shows is that they have almost replicated the state-of-the-art circa 3 years ago when shown on one of the easiest pre-planned routes possible.
- ModernMech 8y ago
  Things I would have been uncomfortable with in that video: - Passing on the right. I almost never do that. - Speeding: 75 in a 65 (0:28) - Merging into a lane next to a car that was pulling off on the shoulder. That's a recipe for disaster. (0:41) - Speeding: 70 in a 65 (1:03) - The car angling the wheels right before a left hand turn (1:12) - Merging over a solid line (1:15) - Merging into the right turn lane at 30 and then taking the turn at 20. (1:20)
huslage 8y ago
Musk stated that they were looking for Level 4/5 next year. They demoed it to the analysts, in admittedly controlled circumstances. I have little doubt that they mean what they say even if their timeline is off.
- JeremyBanks 8y ago
  Elon Musk is going to get several people killed by rushing his oversold tech to market, get the entire thing banned nationwide, and thereby indirectly cause the death of tens of thousands more from preventing the technology from coming to market when it's actually ready. He's reckless. And from a look at his Twitter, probably been using a lot of drugs lately.
- dangrossman 8y ago
  They also said that when they held the very same press conference in 2016, promising coast-to-coast self-driving by the end of 2017. This is also the third time they've said that all Tesla cars have all the hardware needed for self-driving -- with three different sets of hardware now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times? I have significant doubt that they mean what they say.
- 6d6b73 8y ago
  "Musk stated that they were looking for Level 4/5 next year." Some conditions may apply. Driving under inclement weather conditions, or in a dirty car, or in winter, during heavy traffic, on a road with poorly painted etc.. is not supported. /s
- gopher2 8y ago
  Musk is a proven liar at this point. It's like when Trump says Mexico will pay for the wall. It's newsworthy sure... but basically zero informational value in it or basis in fact.
- ModernMech 8y ago
  > in admittedly controlled circumstances That's everything right there. It's not 4/5 if it's in tightly controlled circumstances. I can make anything level 4/5 if I get to control the conditions. It's the same as claiming 100% model performance by testing on training data.

by jpm_sd 8y ago

Tesla's "maybe someday it will be capable of full self-driving" computer is now in all new cars. Also, Full Self Driving is a marketing term that may or may not ever mean Level 4 or Level 5 autonomy.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

The progress is real: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlThdr3O5Qo

century19 8y ago
It overtakes a few cars on the inside in that video. Is that allowed?
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  In the US, yes. EDIT: Not all of the US, see below.
  - dboreham 8y ago
    I think it depends on the state. In California, yes.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      https://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/40365/in-what-states-is-the-left-lane-only-for-passing https://travel.stackexchange.com/questions/40365/in-what-sta... http://www.mit.edu/~jfc/right.html http://www.mit.edu/~jfc/right.html States where it is illegal to pass on the right: Arkansas, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey (My note: In 20 years of driving in Illinois, I have never been cited for passing on the right)
- fourmajor 8y ago
  The car was going 75 MPH as far as I could tell. A bit fast. But generally it seems to be keeping in line with DMV guidelines. https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/hdbk/traffic_lanes https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/dmv/detail/pubs/hdbk/traffic_l...
  - ModernMech 8y ago
    DMV guidelines are that it's okay to pass on the right doing 75 in a 65?
  - century19 8y ago
    That link seems to say that you must pass on the left unless "An open highway is clearly marked for two or more lanes of travel in your direction." and another reason. I guess the multi-lane open highway is the reason it's ok? Does that make those multi-lane open highways a free for all? No concept of a fast lane, overtake wherever you choose?
- cmurf 8y ago
  Depends on the state. In Colorado passing on the right is legal (though I personally find it barbaric). However, Colorado has a "left lane law" that applies on two+ lane highways with speed limits above 65mph. It is illegal to impede traffic in the passing lane, even if you're going the speed limit. https://codes.findlaw.com/co/title-42-vehicles-and-traffic/co-rev-st-sect-42-4-1013.html https://codes.findlaw.com/co/title-42-vehicles-and-traffic/c... A different law requires drivers in the passing lane driving below normal and reasonable speed, to change lanes (move to the right or pull off the road). If you're driving at the speed limit, it's by definition not less than normal or reasonable. And prior to the "left lane law" state patrol couldn't do anything about impeded left lane traffic so long as the impeding vehicle was moving at the speed limit, but since the 2004 "left lane law" you can be ticketed for impeding traffic in the passing lane even if you're driving at the speed limit (and you were always subject to ticketing if you were driving below the speed limit in the passing lane).
danso 8y ago
How does that video show more progress than the self-driving demo that's been on the Tesla Autopilot homepage since 2016 [0]? The 2016 version seems to feature much more in-town driving, including interaction with pedestrians, whereas the newest demo seems to be mostly highway driving? [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG68SKoG7vE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VG68SKoG7vE
KaiserPro 8y ago
Not really. Rolling around a road, in broad daylight, with no adverse conditions and no "interesting" events isn't progress. yes, merging onto a freeway is mildly impressive, but its not anywhere near state of the art. What I'd like to see is what happens when someone swerves out in front of the car? does it stop dead? or panic and hand back control to the driver, just in time to crash? What about rain, or snow? How does it handle diversions? what about new roads? None of this is really about hardware, sure more power helps, as does sensors with lower noise floors and greater pre-processing. The difficult part is, and has always been, software. What Tesla is doing is knowingly allow people to to unsafe software to gather scenarios that can be used as learning events. Not only that, they are getting people to pay a premium. I imagine that tesla will then rent the next generation of trained models back to the drivers, even though they paid for, and provided the training set.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  > What Tesla is doing is knowingly allow people to to unsafe software to gather scenarios that can be used as learning events. Not only that, they are getting people to pay a premium. I imagine that tesla will then rent the next generation of trained models back to the drivers, even though they paid for, and provided the training set. As a Model S owner with over 10k miles on Autopilot, I take issue with you calling the software unsafe (I have never once had a disengagement that caused a safety issue), and I am happy to pay a premium to contribute to what I consider progress. I would happily pay more. Waymo vehicles aren't available to anyone buy a few beta testers. Tesla Autopilot neural net improvements are available to everyone in the fleet.
  - KaiserPro 8y ago
    I am glad you are happy. As someone who paid >$100k for a new car, of course you are going to get _free_ upgrades. But, it is immoral to ship something thats barely level 2 and market it as an autopilot. Yes, they have made great strides, but tesla basically gambled that no one would crash. This is the issue I have with our industry. That kind of slapdash "lets work 100 hour weeks and ship anyway, yes the target is impossible but a broken MVP is better than no MVP" is fine for a webapp. But for life critical software, no, no its not.
dangrossman 8y ago
That video is less impressive than the one they released in 2016 using off-the-shelf hardware and software from Nvidia. The only progress it shows is that they have almost replicated the state-of-the-art circa 3 years ago when shown on one of the easiest pre-planned routes possible.
ModernMech 8y ago
Things I would have been uncomfortable with in that video: - Passing on the right. I almost never do that. - Speeding: 75 in a 65 (0:28) - Merging into a lane next to a car that was pulling off on the shoulder. That's a recipe for disaster. (0:41) - Speeding: 70 in a 65 (1:03) - The car angling the wheels right before a left hand turn (1:12) - Merging over a solid line (1:15) - Merging into the right turn lane at 30 and then taking the turn at 20. (1:20)

huslage 8y ago

Musk stated that they were looking for Level 4/5 next year. They demoed it to the analysts, in admittedly controlled circumstances. I have little doubt that they mean what they say even if their timeline is off.

JeremyBanks 8y ago
Elon Musk is going to get several people killed by rushing his oversold tech to market, get the entire thing banned nationwide, and thereby indirectly cause the death of tens of thousands more from preventing the technology from coming to market when it's actually ready. He's reckless. And from a look at his Twitter, probably been using a lot of drugs lately.
dangrossman 8y ago
They also said that when they held the very same press conference in 2016, promising coast-to-coast self-driving by the end of 2017. This is also the third time they've said that all Tesla cars have all the hardware needed for self-driving -- with three different sets of hardware now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me three times? I have significant doubt that they mean what they say.
6d6b73 8y ago
"Musk stated that they were looking for Level 4/5 next year." Some conditions may apply. Driving under inclement weather conditions, or in a dirty car, or in winter, during heavy traffic, on a road with poorly painted etc.. is not supported. /s
gopher2 8y ago
Musk is a proven liar at this point. It's like when Trump says Mexico will pay for the wall. It's newsworthy sure... but basically zero informational value in it or basis in fact.
ModernMech 8y ago
> in admittedly controlled circumstances That's everything right there. It's not 4/5 if it's in tightly controlled circumstances. I can make anything level 4/5 if I get to control the conditions. It's the same as claiming 100% model performance by testing on training data.