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Tulip Mania lasted a few months during 1636/1637: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania Yet this episode continu

by apo 7y ago

Tulip Mania lasted a few months during 1636/1637: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania Yet this episode continues to be trotted out whenever the Bitcoin exchange rate does something... unusual. It's been happening for eight years now. Time to move on and either develop a new analogy, or finally decide that Bitcoin is unlike anything that's come before it.

rootusrootus 7y ago
Not all speculative bubbles follow the same schedule. The 2000s housing bubble in the US, for example, took years to play out. Just because tulips played out quickly does not mean BitCoin is not a speculative bubble.
- oarsinsync 7y ago
  I think what GP's trying to say is maybe it's time to retire the tulip analogy, and per your own point, maybe it's time to start referring to the Bitcoin bubble in terms of the housing market bubble instead? I suspect a headline like "are bitcoins like the US housing market" probably wouldn't go down well though.
  - braythwayt 7y ago
    This comes down to deciding whether mentioning "Tulips" is a memorable shorthand for discussing all kinds of bubbles, or if we are attempting to use tulips as a model that we can reason from ("If it's like tulips, then since tulips X, we can expect Bitcoin to also X"). Personally, I take all mentions of Tulip Mania as a kind of memorable shorthand for "Hyper-speculative, with little or no trading on the basis of the underlying utility." Why Tulips instead of houses? Because we as a society have been using the tulip analogy longer, that's really the only reason. It's not an assertion that tulips fit better than houses. It's much the same as expressions like "Grandfathered in." Nobody worries about whether a particular law or regulation is actually being enacted as a way to deprive ex-slaves of their right to vote while guaranteeing it for illiterate whites. To almost everybody, it's just a phrase.
  - rootusrootus 7y ago
    I think tulips make a nicer analogy, but to be fair it isn't exactly the same. Same goes with houses. Tulips and houses both have some intrinsic value. The closest equivalent aspect of BitCoin is what, goodwill?
- Shorel 7y ago
  Because Bitcoin is not a bubble. At least not a single one defined and contained bubble. It is more like boiling water. One bubble after another. With no end in sight. In a daily basis, it is just unpredictable. Monthly, it sometimes makes grown people cry. On a yearly basis, it has been slowly growing.
- antisthenes 7y ago
  The housing bubble is far from being played out. In most desirable-to-live places, prices have recovered and gone above and beyond 2008 levels. Of course it's really the value of land and not the structure itself, but still, the scarcity aspect remains unchanged.

by apo 7y ago

rootusrootus 7y ago

Not all speculative bubbles follow the same schedule. The 2000s housing bubble in the US, for example, took years to play out. Just because tulips played out quickly does not mean BitCoin is not a speculative bubble.

oarsinsync 7y ago
I think what GP's trying to say is maybe it's time to retire the tulip analogy, and per your own point, maybe it's time to start referring to the Bitcoin bubble in terms of the housing market bubble instead? I suspect a headline like "are bitcoins like the US housing market" probably wouldn't go down well though.
- braythwayt 7y ago
  This comes down to deciding whether mentioning "Tulips" is a memorable shorthand for discussing all kinds of bubbles, or if we are attempting to use tulips as a model that we can reason from ("If it's like tulips, then since tulips X, we can expect Bitcoin to also X"). Personally, I take all mentions of Tulip Mania as a kind of memorable shorthand for "Hyper-speculative, with little or no trading on the basis of the underlying utility." Why Tulips instead of houses? Because we as a society have been using the tulip analogy longer, that's really the only reason. It's not an assertion that tulips fit better than houses. It's much the same as expressions like "Grandfathered in." Nobody worries about whether a particular law or regulation is actually being enacted as a way to deprive ex-slaves of their right to vote while guaranteeing it for illiterate whites. To almost everybody, it's just a phrase.
- rootusrootus 7y ago
  I think tulips make a nicer analogy, but to be fair it isn't exactly the same. Same goes with houses. Tulips and houses both have some intrinsic value. The closest equivalent aspect of BitCoin is what, goodwill?
Shorel 7y ago
Because Bitcoin is not a bubble. At least not a single one defined and contained bubble. It is more like boiling water. One bubble after another. With no end in sight. In a daily basis, it is just unpredictable. Monthly, it sometimes makes grown people cry. On a yearly basis, it has been slowly growing.
antisthenes 7y ago
The housing bubble is far from being played out. In most desirable-to-live places, prices have recovered and gone above and beyond 2008 levels. Of course it's really the value of land and not the structure itself, but still, the scarcity aspect remains unchanged.