2 ms·

> despite all the evidence that it can't and won't. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the Earth's natural nuclear fuel resources can find a way

> despite all the evidence that it can't and won't. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic that the Earth's natural nuclear fuel resources can find a way to be effectively used by humanity. We've done an OK job at it so far. It's relatively safe. It's very low-carbon, and it has been making ~60% of the USA's carbon free energy for a few decades. Not a bad track record. But it's a bit too expensive. So we just have to figure out ways to make it cheaper. This certainly doesn't seem insurmountable. I don't think a "can't and won't" curse is at all warranted.

pfdietz 8y ago
What are these reasons to be optimistic? Experience is that nuclear is big and complicated, and doesn't produce good experience effects. Technologies that experience rapid improvement tend to be things that involve small items produced in high volume, with rapid design iteration. I think nuclear energy optimism is largely based on wishful thinking.
- acidburnNSA 8y ago
  Most reactors are big and complicated. People are trying to change that. Very small reactors like the truck-mountable ML-1 have worked in the past, albeit not very well. Perhaps with new materials and new power cycles, we can do better. Meanwhile nuclear plants go on saving millions of lives by displacing air pollution deaths. China is building high-power district heater reactors to reduce coal deaths in Winter [1]. You're absolutely right that rapid improvement requires high volume. That's probably the fundamental challenge of nuclear right now. MIT is working on shipyard constructed nuclear stuff that has these characteristics for this precise reason [2]. UltraSafe nuclear's microreactors are attempting the same dynamic [3]. Human progress depends wholly on people taking bets like this. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nuclear-heating/china-looks-to-nuclear-option-to-ease-winter-heating-woes-idUSKBN1E404J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nuclear-heating/chi... [2] http://news.mit.edu/2015/new-look-floating-nuclear-power-0624 http://news.mit.edu/2015/new-look-floating-nuclear-power-062... [3] https://usnc.com/ https://usnc.com/

pfdietz 8y ago

What are these reasons to be optimistic? Experience is that nuclear is big and complicated, and doesn't produce good experience effects. Technologies that experience rapid improvement tend to be things that involve small items produced in high volume, with rapid design iteration. I think nuclear energy optimism is largely based on wishful thinking.

acidburnNSA 8y ago
Most reactors are big and complicated. People are trying to change that. Very small reactors like the truck-mountable ML-1 have worked in the past, albeit not very well. Perhaps with new materials and new power cycles, we can do better. Meanwhile nuclear plants go on saving millions of lives by displacing air pollution deaths. China is building high-power district heater reactors to reduce coal deaths in Winter [1]. You're absolutely right that rapid improvement requires high volume. That's probably the fundamental challenge of nuclear right now. MIT is working on shipyard constructed nuclear stuff that has these characteristics for this precise reason [2]. UltraSafe nuclear's microreactors are attempting the same dynamic [3]. Human progress depends wholly on people taking bets like this. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nuclear-heating/china-looks-to-nuclear-option-to-ease-winter-heating-woes-idUSKBN1E404J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-nuclear-heating/chi... [2] http://news.mit.edu/2015/new-look-floating-nuclear-power-0624 http://news.mit.edu/2015/new-look-floating-nuclear-power-062... [3] https://usnc.com/ https://usnc.com/