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> None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will

by grecy 8y ago

> None of what Elon said will change the world in the next 5 years... Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. Entire car rated to 1 million miles (including the battery pack) with minimal servicing Level five autonomy at the end of 2020. Remove steering wheels and pedals from cars a year after that. After robo-fleet goes live Tesla will be "massively profitable" Cars that today cost $38k will make $300k + in the next 11 years for their owners in the fleet etc. > Other companies are both capable of aiming high, planning, and succeeding He mentioned that all their cars since 2016 have had redundant power steering, redundant wiring and even redundant power. Even if it loses the main power pack it can still steer and brake safely. Give me ONE example of another auto manufacturer that has thought far enough ahead to design that kind of redundancy into their vehicles planning for self driving? It simply does not exist in the industry. The man really is seeing the future and trying his best to make it happen. Like I said there will be a huge debate about if he can actually do it.... I'm just saying that if he can it's going to be a very exciting time to be alive

dwighttk 8y ago
>Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. I could say 20 things that if even 1 comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same!
- grecy 8y ago
  You could, but you're not a billionaire running multiple companies that have already done a ton of things that many, many experts said could not be done. Also note, I'm not saying Elon will do all or even half of them. I'm saying it's going to be damn exciting to watch, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he does, because I'd like the world to get better, and I'm happy to be an optimist.
  - justapassenger 8y ago
    > You could, but you're not a billionaire running multiple companies that have already done a ton of things that many, many experts said could not be done. Like what? I often hear people saying that experts were saying it's impossible to land a rocket or make a good EV car. But I didn't hear experts saying that. What I did hear, is experts saying it's impossible to make it in cost effective way. And for that - economy for spacex is still to be proven. Tesla is still bleeding money (apart from occasional financially engineered quarters). That being said - while I think most of his companies are doomed to fail (due to gross mismanagement), I'm happy Elon is around. He's lying a lot, and always overestimating by an order of magnitude what he can deliver. But he does inspire people to go into science and engineering - spacex landing rockets are saturn 5 or space shuttle of this generation.
    - gamblor956 8y ago
      I think SpaceX will stick around as long as Shotwell remains COO. She's done a great job of running it. All of SpaceX's disasters can be traced to the pre-Shotwell period, or to Elon interfering in her management (such as this past weekend's rushed crew capsule test).
gamblor956 8y ago
He mentioned that all their cars since 2016 have had redundant power steering, redundant wiring and even redundant power. Even if it loses the main power pack it can still steer and brake safely. Given that so many Tesla owners have complained about the power steering and wiring going back (and the delays in getting these issues fixed) the most likely explanation is that Tesla is attempting to forestall maintenance issues by simply adding built-in backups rather than by improving quality control and making the primaries work better. IOW: having built-in redundant parts for some of the most important parts of the car--which aren't known for breaking down in cars from other manufacturers--is actually a sign of failure on Tesla's part, not a sign of forward-thinking. Entire car rated to 1 million miles (including the battery pack) with minimal servicing That's nice. Tesla can't manage to get car panels aligned properly, and a number of cars are still awaiting parts a year or more after they went in for service, and Tesla hasn't managed to fix its own billion-dollar factory line to work properly...but in 5 years they're promising better-made cars than any other car maker? Toyoto has earned the right to make that claim with their decades of consistency. Tesla hasn't, especially not after the Model 3 fiascos. Level five autonomy at the end of 2020. Remove steering wheels and pedals from cars a year after that. Call me when they manage to actually stop their cars from veering toward freeway dividers. It was still happening as of November 2018... Also, there's the pesky little problem of Tesla not yet having demonstrated a door-to-door trip yet in uncontrolled conditions despite promising that back in 2016. After robo-fleet goes live Tesla will be "massively profitable" See above. Need to hit Level 5 before then. But based on all the lots filled with unpurchased Model 3s, they'll probably have the fleet for it if they ever achieve Level 5...

by grecy 8y ago

dwighttk 8y ago

>Oh come on! If even half of what he says comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same. I could say 20 things that if even 1 comes true in the next five years the world will not be the same!

grecy 8y ago
You could, but you're not a billionaire running multiple companies that have already done a ton of things that many, many experts said could not be done. Also note, I'm not saying Elon will do all or even half of them. I'm saying it's going to be damn exciting to watch, and I'm keeping my fingers crossed that he does, because I'd like the world to get better, and I'm happy to be an optimist.
- justapassenger 8y ago
  > You could, but you're not a billionaire running multiple companies that have already done a ton of things that many, many experts said could not be done. Like what? I often hear people saying that experts were saying it's impossible to land a rocket or make a good EV car. But I didn't hear experts saying that. What I did hear, is experts saying it's impossible to make it in cost effective way. And for that - economy for spacex is still to be proven. Tesla is still bleeding money (apart from occasional financially engineered quarters). That being said - while I think most of his companies are doomed to fail (due to gross mismanagement), I'm happy Elon is around. He's lying a lot, and always overestimating by an order of magnitude what he can deliver. But he does inspire people to go into science and engineering - spacex landing rockets are saturn 5 or space shuttle of this generation.
  - gamblor956 8y ago
    I think SpaceX will stick around as long as Shotwell remains COO. She's done a great job of running it. All of SpaceX's disasters can be traced to the pre-Shotwell period, or to Elon interfering in her management (such as this past weekend's rushed crew capsule test).

gamblor956 8y ago

He mentioned that all their cars since 2016 have had redundant power steering, redundant wiring and even redundant power. Even if it loses the main power pack it can still steer and brake safely. Given that so many Tesla owners have complained about the power steering and wiring going back (and the delays in getting these issues fixed) the most likely explanation is that Tesla is attempting to forestall maintenance issues by simply adding built-in backups rather than by improving quality control and making the primaries work better. IOW: having built-in redundant parts for some of the most important parts of the car--which aren't known for breaking down in cars from other manufacturers--is actually a sign of failure on Tesla's part, not a sign of forward-thinking. Entire car rated to 1 million miles (including the battery pack) with minimal servicing That's nice. Tesla can't manage to get car panels aligned properly, and a number of cars are still awaiting parts a year or more after they went in for service, and Tesla hasn't managed to fix its own billion-dollar factory line to work properly...but in 5 years they're promising better-made cars than any other car maker? Toyoto has earned the right to make that claim with their decades of consistency. Tesla hasn't, especially not after the Model 3 fiascos. Level five autonomy at the end of 2020. Remove steering wheels and pedals from cars a year after that. Call me when they manage to actually stop their cars from veering toward freeway dividers. It was still happening as of November 2018... Also, there's the pesky little problem of Tesla not yet having demonstrated a door-to-door trip yet in uncontrolled conditions despite promising that back in 2016. After robo-fleet goes live Tesla will be "massively profitable" See above. Need to hit Level 5 before then. But based on all the lots filled with unpurchased Model 3s, they'll probably have the fleet for it if they ever achieve Level 5...