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The better way of looking at it is that American guarantees can only mean so much. A DPRK with a nuke is different kind of threat to US, compared to Japan compa

The better way of looking at it is that American guarantees can only mean so much. A DPRK with a nuke is different kind of threat to US, compared to Japan compared to South Korea. There is already enough gap, the Japanese realized that leaving their security with Americans entirely is not a strategy. So they are walking back from the pacifist constitutions and militarizing. In the short-to-mid term its good for US, a formidable ally with world class navy! But a Japan with powerful navy cant help itself but wants to dominate Pacific, that what happened in December of 1941, the rest is history.

DamnYuppie 8y ago
I agree, relying on someone else is a recipe for disaster so they should start to militarize. Yet I don't necessarily agree that they will become expansionist. Also note they started way before 1941, I believe they began in 1904 with their war with Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War.
- TazeTSchnitzel 8y ago
  The problem as ever is geography. For example, Korea is strategically important to Japan, because the peninsula is the perfect starting place for an invasion of the islands of Japan (they were only saved from such an invasion by the Mongols because of a tornado). Japan also doesn't have many natural resources of its own. https://youtube.com/watch?v=pcdofW_pV6Q https://youtube.com/watch?v=pcdofW_pV6Q
  - rmah 8y ago
    Korea is even more strategically important to Koreans. And the Japanese have tried to invade or have invaded Korea multiple times.
  - kochikame 8y ago
    Not a tornado, a hurricane (or typhoon as it's called in the Eastern hemisphere)
s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago
One of the main reasons they started to invade other countries was their population growth at the time. They were looking for resources and land. Nowadays their population growth is so abysmal they have no need to land grab.
khuey 8y ago
It's not 1945 anymore. Nobody in Washington has any qualms about Japan building up its military strength with anything short of nukes. The post-war constitution and pacifist values imposed by the Allies on Japan actually took too well, and the Japanese people remain more skeptical of the wisdom a more militarized Japan than either the current Japanese PM or Washington. Japan has little to gain from going on another rampage through Asia conquering stuff. Even if you ignore that annexing other countries tends to make you an international pariah these days (see Russia in eastern Ukraine), everyone near them either has nukes (Russia, the PRC, and the DPRK) or is in some form of alliance with the US (the ROK and ROC).
raiflip 8y ago
The world in 1941 was a lot different. Back then, one would be forgiven for viewing history as either colonize or be colonized. This is not to defend Japan's actions, they did totally unjustified things in China, and as it turned out after Japan modernized, the west never posed a threat (as WWII would wipe out the Europeans ability to colonize and the US had no interest in it. The point being, now our perspective on history is very different. Colonization is a thing of the past. Respecting borders is by and large an unimpeachable norm across most of the world. I don't think Japan will feel the same pressures.
- zipwitch 8y ago
  Respecting borders has been an "unimpeachable norm" for how long, though? Since 1945, at most. That's not even 80 years - just long enough for us to forget why we made it verboten in the first place. I fear that Crimea and the Golan Heights will turn out to be the first drops in a devastating torrent.
  - raiflip 8y ago
    True, it has not been very long. I can see nibbles starting to happen, but I highly doubt countries will start whole-sale take overs like during colonization. The US has shown over the last 70 years willingness to go to war to roll back conquests (like the iraq war in 1991). Even if China or Russia wanted to, the threat of nuclear war would contain all parties, like it did in the cold war.
  - dogma1138 8y ago
    Cyprus has been occupied by Turkey a NATO member for how long now and you are worried about the Golan Heights? As far as Crimea goes the world is much better off with it than the alternative of forcing Russia’s hand. No one that can read a map ever thought Russia would give up their only warm water port, it’s also the reason why they went to Syria it’s their only port with access to the med that doesn’t have a NATO toll booth controlling it. Russia is a land locked country with all of its strategic assets and everything it cares about within strike distance of NATO FOBs. The US and NATO isn’t stupid they won’t be bogged down fighting over the rubbles of Stalingrad and they are much better logistically equipped to fight in winter than Napoleon. If a conventional conflict breaks out NATO tanks would find themselves on the outskirts of Moscow well before Russia can reach Warsaw yet alone Berlin. The buffer zone of the former Baltic and Soviet states has eroded and as much as the Baltics fear Russia if I was a Russian general I would be binge drinking and for a good reason just to stop my balls from shivering. Russia has no strategic depth, it’s land locked and thanks to improvements in air and missile defense also air and even space locked. Their geographical actions are about as predictable as playing risk with a 3 year old but just like that game the biggest risk is you have no idea if and when they’ll throw a tantrum and smash the board.
ArtDev 8y ago
If anyone is going to try to repeat 1940's Japan, it is China.

DamnYuppie 8y ago

I agree, relying on someone else is a recipe for disaster so they should start to militarize. Yet I don't necessarily agree that they will become expansionist. Also note they started way before 1941, I believe they began in 1904 with their war with Russia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Japanese_War.

TazeTSchnitzel 8y ago
The problem as ever is geography. For example, Korea is strategically important to Japan, because the peninsula is the perfect starting place for an invasion of the islands of Japan (they were only saved from such an invasion by the Mongols because of a tornado). Japan also doesn't have many natural resources of its own. https://youtube.com/watch?v=pcdofW_pV6Q https://youtube.com/watch?v=pcdofW_pV6Q
- rmah 8y ago
  Korea is even more strategically important to Koreans. And the Japanese have tried to invade or have invaded Korea multiple times.
- kochikame 8y ago
  Not a tornado, a hurricane (or typhoon as it's called in the Eastern hemisphere)

s_y_n_t_a_x 8y ago

One of the main reasons they started to invade other countries was their population growth at the time. They were looking for resources and land. Nowadays their population growth is so abysmal they have no need to land grab.

khuey 8y ago

It's not 1945 anymore. Nobody in Washington has any qualms about Japan building up its military strength with anything short of nukes. The post-war constitution and pacifist values imposed by the Allies on Japan actually took too well, and the Japanese people remain more skeptical of the wisdom a more militarized Japan than either the current Japanese PM or Washington. Japan has little to gain from going on another rampage through Asia conquering stuff. Even if you ignore that annexing other countries tends to make you an international pariah these days (see Russia in eastern Ukraine), everyone near them either has nukes (Russia, the PRC, and the DPRK) or is in some form of alliance with the US (the ROK and ROC).

raiflip 8y ago

The world in 1941 was a lot different. Back then, one would be forgiven for viewing history as either colonize or be colonized. This is not to defend Japan's actions, they did totally unjustified things in China, and as it turned out after Japan modernized, the west never posed a threat (as WWII would wipe out the Europeans ability to colonize and the US had no interest in it. The point being, now our perspective on history is very different. Colonization is a thing of the past. Respecting borders is by and large an unimpeachable norm across most of the world. I don't think Japan will feel the same pressures.

zipwitch 8y ago
Respecting borders has been an "unimpeachable norm" for how long, though? Since 1945, at most. That's not even 80 years - just long enough for us to forget why we made it verboten in the first place. I fear that Crimea and the Golan Heights will turn out to be the first drops in a devastating torrent.
- raiflip 8y ago
  True, it has not been very long. I can see nibbles starting to happen, but I highly doubt countries will start whole-sale take overs like during colonization. The US has shown over the last 70 years willingness to go to war to roll back conquests (like the iraq war in 1991). Even if China or Russia wanted to, the threat of nuclear war would contain all parties, like it did in the cold war.
- dogma1138 8y ago
  Cyprus has been occupied by Turkey a NATO member for how long now and you are worried about the Golan Heights? As far as Crimea goes the world is much better off with it than the alternative of forcing Russia’s hand. No one that can read a map ever thought Russia would give up their only warm water port, it’s also the reason why they went to Syria it’s their only port with access to the med that doesn’t have a NATO toll booth controlling it. Russia is a land locked country with all of its strategic assets and everything it cares about within strike distance of NATO FOBs. The US and NATO isn’t stupid they won’t be bogged down fighting over the rubbles of Stalingrad and they are much better logistically equipped to fight in winter than Napoleon. If a conventional conflict breaks out NATO tanks would find themselves on the outskirts of Moscow well before Russia can reach Warsaw yet alone Berlin. The buffer zone of the former Baltic and Soviet states has eroded and as much as the Baltics fear Russia if I was a Russian general I would be binge drinking and for a good reason just to stop my balls from shivering. Russia has no strategic depth, it’s land locked and thanks to improvements in air and missile defense also air and even space locked. Their geographical actions are about as predictable as playing risk with a 3 year old but just like that game the biggest risk is you have no idea if and when they’ll throw a tantrum and smash the board.

ArtDev 8y ago

If anyone is going to try to repeat 1940's Japan, it is China.