4 ms·

I have a stupid question: was there a regulatory change in the recent past that made it easier to file for IPOs? Or is this just a coincidence that all these S-

• gdsdfe 7y ago
  It's just a good time to file, the end of 10 year bull market right before next year's recession
  • colinbartlett 7y ago
    I find it amusing how confidently you state that. As if completely ignoring all the people who have said that same thing every year for the past 5.
    • gdsdfe 7y ago
      So you think it will be an indefinite bull market or that the recession won't happen next year?
      • evanriley 7y ago
        There obviously won't be an indefinite bull market, but why are you so confident it will happen next year?
        • gdsdfe 7y ago
          I am not, nobody is ... But a lot of people more knowledgeable than me in this area say it's highly probable we'll have one next year or early 2021. The 'when' don't matter much in this context, alot of people are expecting one and it's coming which makes it an ideal time to IPO
          • chrismarlow9 7y ago
            https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/3/25/18279705/yield-curve-inversion-recession-explained https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/2019/3...
        • chrismarlow9 7y ago
          Yield inversion chart has been a reliable indicator for nearly all recessions
    • zhte415 7y ago
      There has been a recession in the US +/- 2 years of the end of every decade for the past 160+ years. That sounds a bit hand-wavey / crystal ball / technical analysis, but has reasons in fundamentals: Several years of collective prosperity decrease risk aversion, low inflation / money targets (thus interest rates) make (over) investment cheap (offices, tall buildings, capital stock, etc), collective memory fades. Certainly not written in stone, however. A book recommendation covering the above, and influence of such fundamentals in long term financial trends: Irrational Exuberance by Robert J Shiller.
  • austenallred 7y ago
    > right before next year's recession How big is your short position?
    • gdsdfe 7y ago
      I don't trade, just an observer
• return1 7y ago
  winter is coming
• cycrutchfield 7y ago
  Rats fleeing the ship before it sinks
• feniv 7y ago
  I've been curious about the increased IPO rate as well. The data is all in EDGAR but it's not easy to find the trends - https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=s-1&owner=include&count=40&action=getcurrent https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?company=&CIK=&type=... I think it'll be a fun project to scrape the data and create some visualizations with it. Look out for a Show HN from me if you're interested!
  • ETHisso2017 7y ago
    Would be curious to see this as well. Bookmarking your profile in case I miss it
  • feniv 7y ago
    FYI - I've put up the extracted data and a quick visualisation here - https://thequarterly.org/S-1.html https://thequarterly.org/S-1.html Surprisingly, it doesn't look like the overall number of IPOs is any higher this year than in the past.
• erulabs 7y ago
  To counter what the others are saying - yes we're at the end of a 10 year market high, but unless VC firms are _entirely liquidating_ their position immediately after the S-1, which they are not, this doesn't to me indicate that a recession is coming. In fact, if anything, the opposite. When others are afraid, be brave, etc...
• thoughtstheseus 7y ago
  It is a trend. As companies IPO, more companies view IPOs as superior exit and capital raising options.