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We had to shoot these "omg zombie" deer with CWD in our backyard in the 50s, just seems like nobody really measured it or panicked about it back then. Is CWD m

We had to shoot these "omg zombie" deer with CWD in our backyard in the 50s, just seems like nobody really measured it or panicked about it back then. Is CWD more or less prevalent than it was in the past? The article fails to even ask this question as you'd expect from the title, it just sort of weaves some other irrelevant wikipedia info into clickbait hysteria.

dsfyu404ed 7y ago
To actually spread and not just maintain a baseline of X% of the population a prions disease needs to have a certain population density because it is transmitted through contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals. Deer predators have mostly been eradicated in the contiguous US so that leaves humans and "the rest of nature" to control population density. In some areas (e.g. southwest) the land simply cannot support the density of deer population required for the disease to gain a good foothold in the deer population. In other areas human hunting is what's holding the deer population density down. Hunting has become a lot less popular since the 1950s and 1960s and the available places to do it has also dwindled so once CWD gets in it rapidly expands among the local population. See for example the massive red blotches on the map in the Chicago and DMV areas, places nobody is hunting deer so they're free to breed up to whatever population density the environment can support, a density high enough to permit the spread of a prions disease. Assuming the current path I would expect to see CWD spread throughout most of the more heavily (deer) populated parts of the US and infect whatever % of the deer population it can given the local population density. There's a lot of untapped potential on the east coast.
- eru 7y ago
  CWD is part of that rest of nature, I guess.
- stcredzero 7y ago
  In other areas human hunting is what's holding the deer population density down. Hunting has become a lot less popular since the 1950s and 1960s and the available places to do it has also dwindled so once CWD gets in it rapidly expands among the local population. In that case, legislation which seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate gun owners might have the unexpected consequence of increasing the spread of CWD.
  - wwweston 7y ago
    Perhaps the presence of a comment like this, which itself seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate, indicates that something like CWD has already jumped into the human population via some firearm-related vector.
    - stcredzero 7y ago
      Perhaps the presence of a comment like this, which itself seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate I suspect you may have meant the grandparent comment, however I also suspect it better applies to the parent comment. (EDIT: Those who know enough to do a technical analysis of such laws, for example, those in California, often come to the conclusion that harassment of the gun owners might be the intended outcome. In any case, it's widely acknowledged that it is the de facto outcome.) For the record, I was talking in a strictly epidemiological sense, which I will cede is one of the valid and rational ways to talk about gun control regulations.
      - wwweston 7y ago
        > Those who know enough to do a technical analysis of such laws, for example, those in California, often come to the conclusion that harassment of the gun owners might be the intended outcome. Citation needed. Short of someone involved with the legislation actually saying "yes, well, the point of this is to annoy people who own guns, and we don't care what else the policy it introduces does", the premise that you actually have any idea what the motives of the people who introduce it is rather incredible, and violates the principle of charity. If there's a credible analysis to that effect, well, lead with that. Otherwise, it's most even-handed to assume that the motive behind firearm-related laws is no more to annoy and alienate any more than the purpose of automotive-related laws is to annoy and alienate drivers, though one could claim the latter case is the "de facto" outcome as well, since nobody loves traffic citations or vehicle registration requirements. Even if there's even a case we could do things another way, the laws that exist are drawn from the motives of accountability and safety. The motive for firearm laws is likely most commonly the same. > For the record, I was talking in a strictly epidemiological sense That claim would be more credible if you hadn't attributed a motive to legislation that was poorly sourced. But to get back to the matter of strict epidemiology: (1) I suppose it's possible that if the reason hunting has dwindled is primarily legal restrictions on either hunting or firearms, then that would be reflected in how the deer population is checked by humans. But I think it's much more likely that in a society with democratic representation, disinterest in hunting would lead legal obstacles to it, rather than the other way around. If there's a correlation, then that's probably the direction it goes. (2) But that "if" is a generous one. If we expect that restrictions on hunting with firearms are a significant determinant in disease conditions on local deer populations, then we would also expect the locales with strictures on hunting or guns would be the ones we're seeing the most significant spread. Since you picked on California, presumably you'd expect that to be a primary host of the epidemic. But if we're going by, say, the CDC map in the article, the center of the largest outbreak covers Wyoming, reaching into adjacent states, none of which are exactly famous for restrictive firearm laws (or, for that matter, party governance bent on annoying gun owners). Next on that list you've got Wisconsin and Illinois, which I suppose is good news for partisans who want to argue the center of the outbreak is the deer population in urban Chicago clearly run amok because of its restrictive gun laws. In short, the outbreak map runs largely counter to your thesis. Now, maybe it was unfair of me to compare your unflattering narrative regarding the motives of those drafting gun laws OR your not-particularly-well-established epidemiological theories to the cognitive problems of someone suffering from prion diseases. You are presumably in full health, and I can own that perhaps it was needlessly rude to make a comparison with a person likely suffering from an illness that may have involved factors they had no awareness of or control over. But absent a high-quality rebuttal to everything I've argued here, what's your explanation?

dsfyu404ed 7y ago

To actually spread and not just maintain a baseline of X% of the population a prions disease needs to have a certain population density because it is transmitted through contact with bodily fluids of infected individuals. Deer predators have mostly been eradicated in the contiguous US so that leaves humans and "the rest of nature" to control population density. In some areas (e.g. southwest) the land simply cannot support the density of deer population required for the disease to gain a good foothold in the deer population. In other areas human hunting is what's holding the deer population density down. Hunting has become a lot less popular since the 1950s and 1960s and the available places to do it has also dwindled so once CWD gets in it rapidly expands among the local population. See for example the massive red blotches on the map in the Chicago and DMV areas, places nobody is hunting deer so they're free to breed up to whatever population density the environment can support, a density high enough to permit the spread of a prions disease. Assuming the current path I would expect to see CWD spread throughout most of the more heavily (deer) populated parts of the US and infect whatever % of the deer population it can given the local population density. There's a lot of untapped potential on the east coast.

eru 7y ago
CWD is part of that rest of nature, I guess.
stcredzero 7y ago
In other areas human hunting is what's holding the deer population density down. Hunting has become a lot less popular since the 1950s and 1960s and the available places to do it has also dwindled so once CWD gets in it rapidly expands among the local population. In that case, legislation which seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate gun owners might have the unexpected consequence of increasing the spread of CWD.
- wwweston 7y ago
  Perhaps the presence of a comment like this, which itself seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate, indicates that something like CWD has already jumped into the human population via some firearm-related vector.
  - stcredzero 7y ago
    Perhaps the presence of a comment like this, which itself seems primarily crafted to annoy and alienate I suspect you may have meant the grandparent comment, however I also suspect it better applies to the parent comment. (EDIT: Those who know enough to do a technical analysis of such laws, for example, those in California, often come to the conclusion that harassment of the gun owners might be the intended outcome. In any case, it's widely acknowledged that it is the de facto outcome.) For the record, I was talking in a strictly epidemiological sense, which I will cede is one of the valid and rational ways to talk about gun control regulations.
    - wwweston 7y ago
      > Those who know enough to do a technical analysis of such laws, for example, those in California, often come to the conclusion that harassment of the gun owners might be the intended outcome. Citation needed. Short of someone involved with the legislation actually saying "yes, well, the point of this is to annoy people who own guns, and we don't care what else the policy it introduces does", the premise that you actually have any idea what the motives of the people who introduce it is rather incredible, and violates the principle of charity. If there's a credible analysis to that effect, well, lead with that. Otherwise, it's most even-handed to assume that the motive behind firearm-related laws is no more to annoy and alienate any more than the purpose of automotive-related laws is to annoy and alienate drivers, though one could claim the latter case is the "de facto" outcome as well, since nobody loves traffic citations or vehicle registration requirements. Even if there's even a case we could do things another way, the laws that exist are drawn from the motives of accountability and safety. The motive for firearm laws is likely most commonly the same. > For the record, I was talking in a strictly epidemiological sense That claim would be more credible if you hadn't attributed a motive to legislation that was poorly sourced. But to get back to the matter of strict epidemiology: (1) I suppose it's possible that if the reason hunting has dwindled is primarily legal restrictions on either hunting or firearms, then that would be reflected in how the deer population is checked by humans. But I think it's much more likely that in a society with democratic representation, disinterest in hunting would lead legal obstacles to it, rather than the other way around. If there's a correlation, then that's probably the direction it goes. (2) But that "if" is a generous one. If we expect that restrictions on hunting with firearms are a significant determinant in disease conditions on local deer populations, then we would also expect the locales with strictures on hunting or guns would be the ones we're seeing the most significant spread. Since you picked on California, presumably you'd expect that to be a primary host of the epidemic. But if we're going by, say, the CDC map in the article, the center of the largest outbreak covers Wyoming, reaching into adjacent states, none of which are exactly famous for restrictive firearm laws (or, for that matter, party governance bent on annoying gun owners). Next on that list you've got Wisconsin and Illinois, which I suppose is good news for partisans who want to argue the center of the outbreak is the deer population in urban Chicago clearly run amok because of its restrictive gun laws. In short, the outbreak map runs largely counter to your thesis. Now, maybe it was unfair of me to compare your unflattering narrative regarding the motives of those drafting gun laws OR your not-particularly-well-established epidemiological theories to the cognitive problems of someone suffering from prion diseases. You are presumably in full health, and I can own that perhaps it was needlessly rude to make a comparison with a person likely suffering from an illness that may have involved factors they had no awareness of or control over. But absent a high-quality rebuttal to everything I've argued here, what's your explanation?