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The problem with such predictions (likewise stock market) is that they are not binary. The question is not if a stock goes up or down. The question is "when?".
by qznc 8y ago
The problem with such predictions (likewise stock market) is that they are not binary. The question is not if a stock goes up or down. The question is "when?". There is no such thing as "opposite" of a date (in a useful sense).
There is actually another questions "how much?". There is also no opposite for that.
- halfnibble 8y agoBut many predictions ARE basically binary. I made so much money on the "Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2019?" question. I can't believe how many people put money on that.