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Betting on politics on PredictIt. I wouldn’t recommend it as an income stream, but having an interest in probability, markets, and international politics, it ha

by paulgb 8y ago

Betting on politics on PredictIt. I wouldn’t recommend it as an income stream, but having an interest in probability, markets, and international politics, it has taught me to read the news more objectively.

z92 8y ago
So on average how much do you earn for say every $100 in bet?
Max-20 8y ago
That looks like an interesting side hustle, would you mind to elaborate a bit on it? How much does it make you in profit per month?
- paulgb 8y ago
  To be honest, I’m still down from the 2016 election. After taking a break from it, I’ve started to recover since taking the time to sit down and understand the rules, fee structure, and betting tactically at the beginning of this year. Even if I were to attribute all my luck this year to skill and I could keep it up, I wouldn’t be able to make a minimum wage at it. I was particularly leaning on OP’s word possibly :)
the_cat_kittles 8y ago
hey! another one in the wild. cool, ive had the same experience
m0zg 8y ago
Should be pretty easy: just check what CNN says and bet in the opposite direction.
- qznc 8y ago
  The problem with such predictions (likewise stock market) is that they are not binary. The question is not if a stock goes up or down. The question is "when?". There is no such thing as "opposite" of a date (in a useful sense). There is actually another questions "how much?". There is also no opposite for that.
  - halfnibble 8y ago
    But many predictions ARE basically binary. I made so much money on the "Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2019?" question. I can't believe how many people put money on that.
fbonetti 8y ago
PredictIt was pretty fun for me until I bet ~$250 on Hillary in 2016. I haven't touched binary options since then.
- halfnibble 8y ago
  I've made a ton of money in PredictIt just by betting from a GOP perspective (I'm guessing not many "investors" go that way, so the odds are skewed).
- kilroy123 8y ago
  I bet $1,000. :(

by paulgb 8y ago

z92 8y ago

So on average how much do you earn for say every $100 in bet?

Max-20 8y ago

That looks like an interesting side hustle, would you mind to elaborate a bit on it? How much does it make you in profit per month?

paulgb 8y ago
To be honest, I’m still down from the 2016 election. After taking a break from it, I’ve started to recover since taking the time to sit down and understand the rules, fee structure, and betting tactically at the beginning of this year. Even if I were to attribute all my luck this year to skill and I could keep it up, I wouldn’t be able to make a minimum wage at it. I was particularly leaning on OP’s word possibly :)

the_cat_kittles 8y ago

hey! another one in the wild. cool, ive had the same experience

m0zg 8y ago

Should be pretty easy: just check what CNN says and bet in the opposite direction.

qznc 8y ago
The problem with such predictions (likewise stock market) is that they are not binary. The question is not if a stock goes up or down. The question is "when?". There is no such thing as "opposite" of a date (in a useful sense). There is actually another questions "how much?". There is also no opposite for that.
- halfnibble 8y ago
  But many predictions ARE basically binary. I made so much money on the "Will Trump be impeached by the end of 2019?" question. I can't believe how many people put money on that.

fbonetti 8y ago

PredictIt was pretty fun for me until I bet ~$250 on Hillary in 2016. I haven't touched binary options since then.

halfnibble 8y ago
I've made a ton of money in PredictIt just by betting from a GOP perspective (I'm guessing not many "investors" go that way, so the odds are skewed).
kilroy123 8y ago
I bet $1,000. :(