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I have a question on climate change: what's the most accurate prediction for the climate in 2050 at the current rate things are going? As in, are there predict

I have a question on climate change: what's the most accurate prediction for the climate in 2050 at the current rate things are going? As in, are there predictions in temperature that have been made based on current models that we will hit by 2050 that we can measure in 2050 to see if the models are correct? Have such predictions been made before for, say, 2020 or 2030? I don't dispute climate change, but my belief in it rests on authorities telling me it's true. It's not based on anything I myself could look at. I'd love to hear some predictions made now or in the past that we could observe whether they're true in the future.

diafygi 8y ago
The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) is the generally considered the best source on climate change science. They have a nice graph of how things can go based on various amounts of sequestered carbon being injected into the carbon cycle. Graph: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.05-01-1.png https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.05-01-1.... Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ It basically shows that if you assume we keep pulling carbon out of the ground (e.g. extracting and burning fossil fuels) we'll end up at +4.5C increase. That kind of change is likely an human extinction-level event (e.g. https://xkcd.com/1379/ https://xkcd.com/1379/). The Paris agreements call for a max of +2C, which means we can only pull up about 25% of proven fossil reserves. So we're going to have to leave 75% of proven fossil reserves in the ground. There's actually a term for this called the "Carbon Bubble", and it's expected to decimate the oil majors and sovereign oil and gas since most of their proven reserves on their balance sheets are going to end up being stranded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble
- A2017U1 8y ago
  > have to leave 75% of proven fossil reserves in the ground. To nitpick, I think you mean burn them. Oil into plastics has minimal emissions.
  - diafygi 8y ago
    Correct, but plastics and other non-burned uses only accounts for <10% of oil and gas. So you'd have to 10x the number of petrochemical products to make up for the decrease in burned product. Plastics are a pretty mature industry, so 10x is well outside the range of what's possible.

diafygi 8y ago

The IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) is the generally considered the best source on climate change science. They have a nice graph of how things can go based on various amounts of sequestered carbon being injected into the carbon cycle. Graph: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.05-01-1.png https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SPM.05-01-1.... Report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ It basically shows that if you assume we keep pulling carbon out of the ground (e.g. extracting and burning fossil fuels) we'll end up at +4.5C increase. That kind of change is likely an human extinction-level event (e.g. https://xkcd.com/1379/ https://xkcd.com/1379/). The Paris agreements call for a max of +2C, which means we can only pull up about 25% of proven fossil reserves. So we're going to have to leave 75% of proven fossil reserves in the ground. There's actually a term for this called the "Carbon Bubble", and it's expected to decimate the oil majors and sovereign oil and gas since most of their proven reserves on their balance sheets are going to end up being stranded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_bubble

A2017U1 8y ago
> have to leave 75% of proven fossil reserves in the ground. To nitpick, I think you mean burn them. Oil into plastics has minimal emissions.
- diafygi 8y ago
  Correct, but plastics and other non-burned uses only accounts for <10% of oil and gas. So you'd have to 10x the number of petrochemical products to make up for the decrease in burned product. Plastics are a pretty mature industry, so 10x is well outside the range of what's possible.