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Thanks for the super detailed feedback! * Yeah the "scrubbing" interface is a little experimental. We originally had it for the mean values too, but that was a
by refrigerator 7y ago
Thanks for the super detailed feedback!
* Yeah the "scrubbing" interface is a little experimental. We originally had it for the mean values too, but that was a bit too crazy so we got rid of it. May well get rid of it altogether.
* It's a 2 standard deviation range, so a little more than 95%, but you're right - we should be clear about this!
* The entire model runs via simulation, so we're not analytically calculating products of distributions etc. I don't think we're reporting the distribution of compounded returns after N years anywhere, but there may well be something misleading somewhere — what specifically are you referring to?
* Thanks for raising the invisible line issue!
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* Yup
* Yup
* I believe we are just taking the sum of historical earnings! What suggests otherwise?
* Yeah including interest and principal. And fair point! In the UK I think it's a reasonable assumption but probably not so in other places.
Thanks again — really appreciate your feedback. Happy to chat more here or via email: hi@causal.app :)
- usaar333 7y ago> I don't think we're reporting the distribution of compounded returns after N years anywhere, but there may well be something misleading somewhere — what specifically are you referring to? The output, e.g. after 21 years. You'll write something like property value is X +/- Y. The problem is that the distribution isn't symmetric. In particular, being at X - Y is far likelier than X + Y, at least if I interpret X as a mean. In addition, the median is less than the mean, which is X? > I believe we are just taking the sum of historical earnings! What suggests otherwise? As I scroll over years, the net rental earnings are clearly not linearly proportionate to the year.