The math on appreciation rate is even worse than you write because the reporting is showing the compounded values as normally distributed which is not valid whe

The math on appreciation rate is even worse than you write because the reporting is showing the compounded values as normally distributed which is not valid when a compounding rate is normally distributed. (normal distribution times normal distribution isn't normal). The way people normally work around this is to use a log-normal distribution, which stays lognormal over time. The appreciation math consequently is massively off for any high variance input. I completely distrust the results.