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Hey look at Web 2.0 and all that private money, almost none of it public, or with anyone's pension riding on it. Please don't look at Gold, NYSE, NASDAQ or 0% P
by fleitz 16y ago
Hey look at Web 2.0 and all that private money, almost none of it public, or with anyone's pension riding on it. Please don't look at Gold, NYSE, NASDAQ or 0% Prime. Those valuations are definitely not a bubble, and aren't at all based on the money the fed is handing the banks to prop the markets. Yes, it's all Web 2.0 THAT's where the bubble is.
All those accredited investors in PRIVATE companies should definitely take their money out and hand it to a large bank who will definitely not handle it as poorly as they previously did.
Even if there is a Web 2.0 bubble the size and scope of it is definitely not comparable to the first bubble, or the subsequent real estate / CDS / MBS fraud. If you're looking for a bubble look at the NYSE / NASDAQ or basically any investment a bank could possibly put their fed money into.
Honestly, the problem is that the USV VC model doesn't work well when you can put a company together for $15,000. That environment much more favors the YC model, the problem is that once startups reach USV from YC they've already established traction and generally have a money making funnel that is ready to be primed with a large amount of cash. Once a company has traction it changes the valuation formula greatly. The reason that a 3 person startup in 6 months has higher valuations than in previous years is because the risk / reward ratio is greatly changed from previous years. Valuations are higher because the new startup life cycle is much shorter. You no longer need $5 million just to see if your idea is viable. With the amount of cash that the big boys have on hand and the difficulty of a modern IPO I think the industry is headed towards more informal version of Japanese style Keiretsu model where startups are using resources of larger parent entities rather than the more formal VC/IPO.
YC has taken the bottom end of the market from USV, so USV sees higher valuations because YC has already taken the risk and weeded out a bunch of companies that didn't work out. So from an entreprenuer perspective you'll see both higher AND lower valuations. Once a startup reaches USV it's higher than in previous years but you'll find a lower valuation for your seed round because of YC (and the associated lower costs of startup).