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Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a bet
by iuguy 16y ago
Your thoughts about inflation are interesting, as I've been expecting them year after year. I'm now convinced there's an effort to spin plates for want of a better word on a more or less global scale. If one major economy goes down it would drag others down with it. I don't think we'll see hyperinflation in the conventional sense, but to put it into perspective we have seen massive inflation in specific targeted areas (food, drink, petrol) in specific economies. I think there may be interesting arbitrage opportunities for some next year resulting from this, but I don't see a major hyperinflation event occuring (at least not on the scale where oil went up to nearly $200) next year.
2012 maybe (but not for the UK due to the Olympics - yes I believe that event alone will cause a loss that will cost us dearly in the long run but may delay the inevitable).
- chailatte 16y agoThat reminds me: there will likely be a default by a major country next year that will drag every economy in the world along with it. My belief is that it will be Ireland, which will affect UK tremendously, since a lot of the Irish debt is held by UK.
- russell 16y agoWow, Ireland is in a world of hurt. External debt is 10x GDP. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_d.... The US is at 94%, but Europe is way worse. Luxembourg is 38x. Could that be correct? Where is all this money roosting? For the US it's China, Japan, and OPEC, with China way out ahead.
- Someone 16y agoI think it is almost more meaningful to compare Luxembourg to lower Manhattan than to other countries. Its 'problem' is that it has a huge banking sector for its 500k inhabitants. That brings in lots of money (Luxembourg is the richest country in the EU), but also imports risks. I do not know where their banks invest their money, but chances are that a fair amount of it is in euro, and that they have been bringing down their investments in the weaker euro countries.
- myth_drannon 16y agoIt can't default because it has already received the necessary funds from ECB and IMF. My take Spain is next. Anyways, lets not turn HN to ZeroHedge :)
- pdelgallego 16y agoI will bet on Portugal, dragging down Spain in it fall.
- iuguy 16y agoI'm down for either Portugal or Spain. Ireland will be bailed out and everyone will be fine, but by the time we get to Portugal there'll be no money left. On the other hand, Spain may have such an impact that the sudden realisation that this is the last bailout may well tip countries over the edge.