4 ms·

The Miraculous Decline in Deaths by Fire

23 points by cwan 16y ago

patio11 16y ago
I am curious: what do you consider the most impressive but underappreciated measures of progress in the past 100 years? I like measuring the old standbys: Pestilence, War, Famine, Death. All of them are radically better, by any objective measure, in 2010 versus 1910, virtually regardless of where you look.
maxklein 16y ago
There has also been a miraculous decline in deaths from scurvy.
mattdeboard 16y ago
Gee, there's been a 90% decline in deaths by fire since we stopped using open flames for light and heat? That's astounding.
- scrod 16y ago
  The graph shows a continuing decline, with a sizable difference between even now and 1990. In fact, almost the entire trend since 1918 has been roughly linear — hardly what your hypothesis would suggest.
  - mattdeboard 16y ago
    I don't know about that. Looks to me, just from eyeballing it of course, that there are two periods of logarithmic decay. The first in 1918-1969, then another period of logarithmic decay until present day. A brief Google search reveals some information that would seem to support there was a big change in fire safety in the 1970s: http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2007/08/09_williamson.shtml http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2007/08/09_williamso... >"[Williamson's contributions] helped make the late 1970s the high-water mark of concerted fire safety science research in the United States, a level which has not subsequently been exceeded." These contributions began in the early 1970s beginning with the classifications of plastics and their flammabilities. The overall tone of the article (admittedly, it is an obit for a noted physicist in the fire science field so it's bound to be flattering) indicates that the decade starting in 1970 began a sea change in fire safety and great gains in fire science. That's my point. Big technological advances increase survivability and decrease risk. I don't get the round-eyed, slack-jawed wonder at the fact that there has been a huge drop in fire-related deaths in 89 years. Moving from open flames to electricity then improving building codes etc., provided two huge catalysts to change. Given that drastic technological change was the constant of the 20th century, this Freakonomics post just seems silly. (As another responder said -- there's also been a dramatic decrease in cases of scurvy over the same timeframe. Similarly a "duh" revelation. I bet a graph of cases of kuru and measles would look about like the fire one.)
deleted 16y ago
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ludicast 16y ago
Believe it or not, the FDNY is putting this information out for a political reason. They are trying to get away with closing 20 fire companies for 15 hour shifts (at night). This is a cost-saving measure at a time when a lawsuit which prevents hiring (http://nydn.us/ag55My http://nydn.us/ag55My) is making staffing difficult and expensive. What the FDNY is not letting you know that firefighters are responding to more emergencies (medical, collapses, car-wrecks, etc.) than ever before. Also, that the night tours are when most fire fatalities occur. Sounds paranoid of me to see an agenda behind statistics, but this is a situation with which I have much familiarity.
Nick_C 16y ago
I wonder what caused the spike during the war years, 39-43? Lower factory standards due to the war effort? I have no idea. Anyone got a clue?

23 points by cwan 16y ago

I am curious: what do you consider the most impressive but underappreciated measures of progress in the past 100 years? I like measuring the old standbys: Pestilence, War, Famine, Death. All of them are radically better, by any objective measure, in 2010 versus 1910, virtually regardless of where you look.

maxklein 16y ago

There has also been a miraculous decline in deaths from scurvy.

mattdeboard 16y ago

Gee, there's been a 90% decline in deaths by fire since we stopped using open flames for light and heat? That's astounding.

scrod 16y ago
The graph shows a continuing decline, with a sizable difference between even now and 1990. In fact, almost the entire trend since 1918 has been roughly linear — hardly what your hypothesis would suggest.
- mattdeboard 16y ago
  I don't know about that. Looks to me, just from eyeballing it of course, that there are two periods of logarithmic decay. The first in 1918-1969, then another period of logarithmic decay until present day. A brief Google search reveals some information that would seem to support there was a big change in fire safety in the 1970s: http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2007/08/09_williamson.shtml http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2007/08/09_williamso... >"[Williamson's contributions] helped make the late 1970s the high-water mark of concerted fire safety science research in the United States, a level which has not subsequently been exceeded." These contributions began in the early 1970s beginning with the classifications of plastics and their flammabilities. The overall tone of the article (admittedly, it is an obit for a noted physicist in the fire science field so it's bound to be flattering) indicates that the decade starting in 1970 began a sea change in fire safety and great gains in fire science. That's my point. Big technological advances increase survivability and decrease risk. I don't get the round-eyed, slack-jawed wonder at the fact that there has been a huge drop in fire-related deaths in 89 years. Moving from open flames to electricity then improving building codes etc., provided two huge catalysts to change. Given that drastic technological change was the constant of the 20th century, this Freakonomics post just seems silly. (As another responder said -- there's also been a dramatic decrease in cases of scurvy over the same timeframe. Similarly a "duh" revelation. I bet a graph of cases of kuru and measles would look about like the fire one.)

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

ludicast 16y ago

Believe it or not, the FDNY is putting this information out for a political reason. They are trying to get away with closing 20 fire companies for 15 hour shifts (at night). This is a cost-saving measure at a time when a lawsuit which prevents hiring (http://nydn.us/ag55My http://nydn.us/ag55My) is making staffing difficult and expensive. What the FDNY is not letting you know that firefighters are responding to more emergencies (medical, collapses, car-wrecks, etc.) than ever before. Also, that the night tours are when most fire fatalities occur. Sounds paranoid of me to see an agenda behind statistics, but this is a situation with which I have much familiarity.

Nick_C 16y ago

I wonder what caused the spike during the war years, 39-43? Lower factory standards due to the war effort? I have no idea. Anyone got a clue?