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I find the long term projections incredibly dubious, I cannot fathom how Nigeria could support 800M inhabitants, and Niger 200M. and why the fertility would not
by brohee 8y ago
I find the long term projections incredibly dubious, I cannot fathom how Nigeria could support 800M inhabitants, and Niger 200M. and why the fertility would not fall like it did in the rest of the world. Fertility can and often do fall in a ski slope fashion, like it did in e.g. Iran (https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=iran+fertility https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=iran+fertility).
And indeed, the ski slope is already well started: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=nigeria+fertility https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=nigeria+fertility
- nyolfen 8y agoeven if nigeria’s fertility falls dramatically there’s what’s called demographic momentum[1] which will continue population growth through the rest of the century barring unprecedented migration or catastrophe. 800m is the UN’s middle of the road estimate. the low estimate is around 600m iirc, and the high estimate is over 1b. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_momentum
- turndown 8y agoHow does demographic momentum account for the fact that Nigeria cannot support that many people?
- zeropnc 8y agoI mean, look at how many people tiny Bangladesh is supporting.