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If you look at the paper, private drug discovery is creating drugs at a declining rate. I would suggest this is because those private efforts are much less rese
by dv_dt 8y ago
If you look at the paper, private drug discovery is creating drugs at a declining rate. I would suggest this is because those private efforts are much less research than development, and it's actually the public system that drives much fundamental research. And the drugs to market rate is in serious decline because of a the widespread application of increasingly austure public funding budgets for medical research causing an early pipeline bottleneck.
- aantix 8y agoWhen you dump a link to a 60 page pdf and you’re going to reference it, please list the page number and/graph you’re referring to. I don’t want to guess.
- dv_dt 8y agoSorry, Fig 1, page 15 is the data on drugs discovered per billion. Table 1, pg 18 shows some sample breakdowns of drug investments broken down between basic research and commercial development. I don't necessarily subscribe to everything in that report, but I do think that modeling drug development in terms of a simple risk-reward model for the private drug industry needs further thought.