9 ms·

Listen -- Strange women, lying in ponds, distributing presidential candidacy advice is no basis for a system of government. On a more serious note, can any re

Listen -- Strange women, lying in ponds, distributing presidential candidacy advice is no basis for a system of government. On a more serious note, can any readers from ROC or anyone who's more in touch with the situation there give an insight into whether he stands a chance given (a) the sea goddess angle, and (b) the apparently PRC-friendly platform?

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
dalbasal 8y ago
This makes me suspect that Minerva is involved in all sorts of surprising leadership bids recently. Get back in your lake, lady! You're making a mess.
EastToWest 8y ago
I have been following Taiwan politics on and off for the past three months since Han Kuo-yu came into power. My observation: 1. Mazu is big in Taiwan. 2. DPP didn't have any political achievement in the past three years. 3. Taiwan has been stagnated for the past two decades due to ideology politics. So yes Guo stands a (big?) chance.
- Diederich 8y ago
  > 1. Mazu is big in Taiwan. In your opinion, how much of an advantage is gained from the announcement being clearly aligned with Mazu? Thanks.
  - EastToWest 8y ago
    I don't think it will be a deciding factor, but it is definitively a positive factor for Guo.
    - _underfl0w_ 8y ago
      What's stopping the other candidates from arbitrarily saying they heard a magic deity tell them the same thing?
      - EastToWest 8y ago
        Nothing stops them from doing that. On the other hand, candidates don't have to use the same strategy or excuse to gather support.
- showjackyang 8y ago
  being a Taiwanese, I feel (2) and (3) are actually the perception people have from exposure to China-originated fake news that intents to obscure current Taiwanese government's efforts. No doubt about (1)
  - EastToWest 8y ago
    There is no point arguing with me -- I'm pretty sure you watch those politics talk shows. Branding all of them as "fake news" is not helpful. If you disagree, you'd better refute me with facts. Tell us what achievements (political, economical) DPP had in the past three years; show us the growth in the past two decades. (I learned the term 22k not too long ago)
    - showjackyang 8y ago
      Well... I really don't watch those and clarifying facts is always important. So here you go: This is the GDP for Taiwan is recent years, clearly an ascending trend: https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp As for political achievements, things like (1)having a female president (2)openly supports LGBTQ rights (3)Taiwan's recognition from other like-minded democratic counties has never been stronger since 1979. If these are not political achievements, I don't know what is. As for 22k, low income for young generation is a real (global) issue, which DPP is fighting hard to solve. Having a pro-China, conservation populist figure like Gou is only going the worsen the problem of distribution of wealth.
- mshockwave 8y ago
  Please don't come up with such assertions, even Taiwanese don't know the exact answers for your statements mentioned above. Especially (2), it's like saying either parties in U.S. didn't do anything, which will raise a HUGE debate here on HN
pg_is_a_butt 8y ago
Considering the elections are rigged, what do facts have to do with anything?
showjackyang 8y ago
As Taiwanese, from what I observed, given the level of populism that's going on in the country, the chance of him being elected next year is highly probable. This is a very very very serious threat to Taiwan's effort to counter China's invasive actions. Also even though Mazu is super big in Taiwan, Taiwanese are generally seeing this only as a political declaration. (Religion in Taiwan is more of a spiritual guidance than an actual superior being that dictates people lives.)
- jonathankoren 8y ago
  Curious why the populists are siding with the pro-Beijing crowd. It’s not like the PRC is very populist friendly.
  - showjackyang 8y ago
    Actually PRC is very pro-populism. It's an easy way to manipulate the public. False information combines with some provoking words, you get Chinese communists' means of control. This should be an useful reference: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/taiwanese-populist-han-kuo-yu-china/587146/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/ta...
    - jonathankoren 8y ago
      For certain strains in certain context sure, but I’m still confused why a Taiwanese populist would side with CPC. Sure, you could naïvely buy into the whole reunification thing, but it’s not like Beijing wouldn’t assert complete control. Just look at Hong Kong, or the fact that the mainland has a couple of orders of magnitude more of... everything.
      - showjackyang 8y ago
        well... populist can exist in all political spectrum and entities, as long as it's a popular opinion that feed on fabricated or ambiguous information.
barkingcat 8y ago
When translated into English the sea goddess thing can be really weird, but Ma Zhu is not really a sea goddess. She's more like a folk symbol combined with a patron/saint of the sea and a semi-lifestyle religion. With Taiwan being an island, the patron saint of the sea is an immensely important part of the culture. She is widely known and revered in all of Taiwan. When you go to a Taiwanese family and say "Mazhu bao yo" (Mazu bless you) - it's generally well received even if the people don't believe in Taoism or natural / personified deities. The idea that Gou says "Mazu wanted me to do it" is more like saying to a Catholic that Mother Teresa inspired you to visit India and start a non-profit agency to help the people there. Hopefully the analogy holds for people who are not familiar with the culture there.
- hkmurakami 8y ago
  Was just talking with a friend about this -- we agreed that if this were an American businessman getting the blessing and will of the Christian God from a priest or a bishop, we probably wouldn't think too much of it.
  - Jesus_Jones 8y ago
    A lot of people in the US are uncomfortable and many people are alarmed when a political candidate says god wants them to win, Christian or not.
  - _underfl0w_ 8y ago
    The whole "freedom of religion" thing over here is supposed to keep such nonscientific thinking allowable, but outward religious affiliation (or endorsement) for political actors usually only strengthens the part of the fanbase that condones such thinking. This is usually a significant portion for "conservative" actors who tend to pander to that same set of moral sensibilities and nonscientific rhetoric, since it keeps them popular amongst that portion of their constituency (e.g. any religious statement Cruz or Trump ever made) However, generally a lack of vocal endorsement of a particular religion is seen as a plus for candidates since it's not directly controversial, except for with religious voters who can't possibly fathom how someone could disagree with them on the topic.
ilamont 8y ago
As he's a "mainlander" (外省人, i.e. at least one parent came over with Chiang Kai-shek following the 1949 loss to the Chinese Communist Party in the Chinese Civil War）the Mazu reference seems to be something meant to appeal to Taiwanese (本省人) voters, kind of like a presidential candidate in the U.S. claiming strong local ties when traveling to different regions where that plays well. Yes, he's religious, and he speaks Taiwanese, but I wouldn't assume a huge number of Taiwanese people will back him for those reasons alone. If Gou has real support from the KMT -- no easy thing, considering he hasn't been heavily active in local politics AFAIK -- he might get some wind in his sails, particularly if he sticks with the practical themes relating to cross-strait trade and economic growth. He understands that very, very well. If he doesn't have the right political network in place, though, he's going to piss off a lot of KMT people and likely to relegated to the margins -- or siphon off a lot of blue supporters for an indie run, which will lead to the same type of situation the U.S. Republican party had back in the 90s with Ross Perot.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

dalbasal 8y ago

This makes me suspect that Minerva is involved in all sorts of surprising leadership bids recently. Get back in your lake, lady! You're making a mess.

EastToWest 8y ago

I have been following Taiwan politics on and off for the past three months since Han Kuo-yu came into power. My observation: 1. Mazu is big in Taiwan. 2. DPP didn't have any political achievement in the past three years. 3. Taiwan has been stagnated for the past two decades due to ideology politics. So yes Guo stands a (big?) chance.

Diederich 8y ago
> 1. Mazu is big in Taiwan. In your opinion, how much of an advantage is gained from the announcement being clearly aligned with Mazu? Thanks.
- EastToWest 8y ago
  I don't think it will be a deciding factor, but it is definitively a positive factor for Guo.
  - _underfl0w_ 8y ago
    What's stopping the other candidates from arbitrarily saying they heard a magic deity tell them the same thing?
    - EastToWest 8y ago
      Nothing stops them from doing that. On the other hand, candidates don't have to use the same strategy or excuse to gather support.
showjackyang 8y ago
being a Taiwanese, I feel (2) and (3) are actually the perception people have from exposure to China-originated fake news that intents to obscure current Taiwanese government's efforts. No doubt about (1)
- EastToWest 8y ago
  There is no point arguing with me -- I'm pretty sure you watch those politics talk shows. Branding all of them as "fake news" is not helpful. If you disagree, you'd better refute me with facts. Tell us what achievements (political, economical) DPP had in the past three years; show us the growth in the past two decades. (I learned the term 22k not too long ago)
  - showjackyang 8y ago
    Well... I really don't watch those and clarifying facts is always important. So here you go: This is the GDP for Taiwan is recent years, clearly an ascending trend: https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp As for political achievements, things like (1)having a female president (2)openly supports LGBTQ rights (3)Taiwan's recognition from other like-minded democratic counties has never been stronger since 1979. If these are not political achievements, I don't know what is. As for 22k, low income for young generation is a real (global) issue, which DPP is fighting hard to solve. Having a pro-China, conservation populist figure like Gou is only going the worsen the problem of distribution of wealth.
mshockwave 8y ago
Please don't come up with such assertions, even Taiwanese don't know the exact answers for your statements mentioned above. Especially (2), it's like saying either parties in U.S. didn't do anything, which will raise a HUGE debate here on HN

pg_is_a_butt 8y ago

Considering the elections are rigged, what do facts have to do with anything?

showjackyang 8y ago

As Taiwanese, from what I observed, given the level of populism that's going on in the country, the chance of him being elected next year is highly probable. This is a very very very serious threat to Taiwan's effort to counter China's invasive actions. Also even though Mazu is super big in Taiwan, Taiwanese are generally seeing this only as a political declaration. (Religion in Taiwan is more of a spiritual guidance than an actual superior being that dictates people lives.)

jonathankoren 8y ago
Curious why the populists are siding with the pro-Beijing crowd. It’s not like the PRC is very populist friendly.
- showjackyang 8y ago
  Actually PRC is very pro-populism. It's an easy way to manipulate the public. False information combines with some provoking words, you get Chinese communists' means of control. This should be an useful reference: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/taiwanese-populist-han-kuo-yu-china/587146/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/04/ta...
  - jonathankoren 8y ago
    For certain strains in certain context sure, but I’m still confused why a Taiwanese populist would side with CPC. Sure, you could naïvely buy into the whole reunification thing, but it’s not like Beijing wouldn’t assert complete control. Just look at Hong Kong, or the fact that the mainland has a couple of orders of magnitude more of... everything.
    - showjackyang 8y ago
      well... populist can exist in all political spectrum and entities, as long as it's a popular opinion that feed on fabricated or ambiguous information.

barkingcat 8y ago

When translated into English the sea goddess thing can be really weird, but Ma Zhu is not really a sea goddess. She's more like a folk symbol combined with a patron/saint of the sea and a semi-lifestyle religion. With Taiwan being an island, the patron saint of the sea is an immensely important part of the culture. She is widely known and revered in all of Taiwan. When you go to a Taiwanese family and say "Mazhu bao yo" (Mazu bless you) - it's generally well received even if the people don't believe in Taoism or natural / personified deities. The idea that Gou says "Mazu wanted me to do it" is more like saying to a Catholic that Mother Teresa inspired you to visit India and start a non-profit agency to help the people there. Hopefully the analogy holds for people who are not familiar with the culture there.

hkmurakami 8y ago
Was just talking with a friend about this -- we agreed that if this were an American businessman getting the blessing and will of the Christian God from a priest or a bishop, we probably wouldn't think too much of it.
- Jesus_Jones 8y ago
  A lot of people in the US are uncomfortable and many people are alarmed when a political candidate says god wants them to win, Christian or not.
- _underfl0w_ 8y ago
  The whole "freedom of religion" thing over here is supposed to keep such nonscientific thinking allowable, but outward religious affiliation (or endorsement) for political actors usually only strengthens the part of the fanbase that condones such thinking. This is usually a significant portion for "conservative" actors who tend to pander to that same set of moral sensibilities and nonscientific rhetoric, since it keeps them popular amongst that portion of their constituency (e.g. any religious statement Cruz or Trump ever made) However, generally a lack of vocal endorsement of a particular religion is seen as a plus for candidates since it's not directly controversial, except for with religious voters who can't possibly fathom how someone could disagree with them on the topic.

ilamont 8y ago

As he's a "mainlander" (外省人, i.e. at least one parent came over with Chiang Kai-shek following the 1949 loss to the Chinese Communist Party in the Chinese Civil War）the Mazu reference seems to be something meant to appeal to Taiwanese (本省人) voters, kind of like a presidential candidate in the U.S. claiming strong local ties when traveling to different regions where that plays well. Yes, he's religious, and he speaks Taiwanese, but I wouldn't assume a huge number of Taiwanese people will back him for those reasons alone. If Gou has real support from the KMT -- no easy thing, considering he hasn't been heavily active in local politics AFAIK -- he might get some wind in his sails, particularly if he sticks with the practical themes relating to cross-strait trade and economic growth. He understands that very, very well. If he doesn't have the right political network in place, though, he's going to piss off a lot of KMT people and likely to relegated to the margins -- or siphon off a lot of blue supporters for an indie run, which will lead to the same type of situation the U.S. Republican party had back in the 90s with Ross Perot.