4 ms·

I'm curious that you say "May's deal is dead" but then say that a customs union (presumably tacked on to May's deal) remains an option. Surely they're effective

by mrec 8y ago

I'm curious that you say "May's deal is dead" but then say that a customs union (presumably tacked on to May's deal) remains an option. Surely they're effectively the same thing? May's WA already leads to a customs union in practice, it's just evasive about coming out and saying so. Maybe a ref on WA+CU-explicit versus WTO is what's needed, but let's be honest, they're never ever going to run that one. Maybe a solid kicking in the May elections (EU and local) will concentrate minds a bit, but I'm not hopeful. I can easily see both main parties disintegrating soon, at which point we're really off to the races.

AnimalMuppet 8y ago
I said that May's deal (the WA) is dead because of the degree to which it has been rejected in Parliament. I said customs union as a possibility in terms of CU minus the non-CU parts of the WA, that is, something rather distinct from the WA. I said it remained as an option because I didn't know enough to rule it out. Now, you could be right that either May (or her successor) would never be floated as an option. Or it could be that it is not possible to get an agreement on those parameters (CU minus the rest of the WA) with the EU. Both those could be perfectly valid reasons this would never fly. I was just trying to list the possibilities, and rule out the ones that looked to me like they were dead. > I can easily see both main parties disintegrating soon Parties can disintegrate when they aren't well aligned with what becomes the dominant issue of the day. This looks to me exactly like what's happening in the UK, especially with the Tories. But maybe new parties that actually correspond to positions on Brexit would be better than the incredible muddle that currently exists...
- mrec 8y ago
  > But maybe new parties that actually correspond to positions on Brexit would be better than the incredible muddle that currently exists Maybe on Brexit. But Scotland's recent experience suggests that single-issue independence parties do a terrible job of governing.

by mrec 8y ago

AnimalMuppet 8y ago

I said that May's deal (the WA) is dead because of the degree to which it has been rejected in Parliament. I said customs union as a possibility in terms of CU minus the non-CU parts of the WA, that is, something rather distinct from the WA. I said it remained as an option because I didn't know enough to rule it out. Now, you could be right that either May (or her successor) would never be floated as an option. Or it could be that it is not possible to get an agreement on those parameters (CU minus the rest of the WA) with the EU. Both those could be perfectly valid reasons this would never fly. I was just trying to list the possibilities, and rule out the ones that looked to me like they were dead. > I can easily see both main parties disintegrating soon Parties can disintegrate when they aren't well aligned with what becomes the dominant issue of the day. This looks to me exactly like what's happening in the UK, especially with the Tories. But maybe new parties that actually correspond to positions on Brexit would be better than the incredible muddle that currently exists...

mrec 8y ago
> But maybe new parties that actually correspond to positions on Brexit would be better than the incredible muddle that currently exists Maybe on Brexit. But Scotland's recent experience suggests that single-issue independence parties do a terrible job of governing.