Daniel Kahnemann calls this the "inside view" and "outside view", from his book Thinking Fast and Slow. The relevant excerpt (mostly an anecdote that serves as

Daniel Kahnemann calls this the "inside view" and "outside view", from his book Thinking Fast and Slow. The relevant excerpt (mostly an anecdote that serves as an introduction to a whole chapter about it) can be found here: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/daniel-kahneman-beware-the-inside-view https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-cor...