As always, my favorite article on this subject: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJC

As always, my favorite article on this subject: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-fallacy https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CPm5LTwHrvBJCa9h5/planning-f... > A clue to the underlying problem with the planning algorithm was uncovered by Newby-Clark et al., who found that Asking subjects for their predictions based on realistic “best guess” scenarios; and Asking subjects for their hoped-for “best case” scenarios . . . . . . produced indistinguishable results. > So there is a fairly reliable way to fix the planning fallacy, if you’re doing something broadly similar to a reference class of previous projects. Just ask how long similar projects have taken in the past, without considering any of the special properties of this project. Better yet, ask an experienced outsider how long similar projects have taken.