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I disagree. Estimations tend to be just as wrong even when the tools are well known. There's always that one edge case you haven't considered, that one algorit
by maltalex 8y ago
I disagree. Estimations tend to be just as wrong even when the tools are well known.
There's always that one edge case you haven't considered, that one algorithm that doesn't work as well as you expected, that small change to the requirements the requires a completely different approach.
- SilasX 8y ago"Just as" wrong? I don't know what to point to to resolve disagreement here since it's just anecdotal, but if you're just using the same feature you've used hundreds of times before, there is nowhere near the potential for yak-shaving snags.
- maltalex 8y agoOkay, sure. Not "just as" wrong since a certain class of pitfalls are eliminated by deep knowledge of your tools. But I'd argue that that's not where the bulk of the uncertainty comes from. I think that in the software industry as a whole, most of the problems are solved by people with at least a decent understanding of their tools, and estimates still suck. The problems is that the tasks we deal with are always new, unsolved problems. That's the nature of software. Unsolved problems come with uncertainty. That's the nature of unsolved problems. Carpenters on the other hand deal mostly with solved problems. They just need to execute.