3 ms·
I find this approach very interesting, but it hinges on the assumption that project completion times follow a beta distribution. What's the basis for that?
by maltalex 8y ago
I find this approach very interesting, but it hinges on the assumption that project completion times follow a beta distribution. What's the basis for that?
- kqr 8y agoIt may reflect the observations in OP kind of well -- with one difference: it assumes we're good at estimating the mode, not the median. But other than that, within the range we're talking about (1 < alpha < beta) it has somewhat similar shape to the lognormal distribution. The three things that still bother me about that idea are: 1. I haven't tried fitting it to the dataset in OP; 2. It's bounded to the right, which seems unrealistic; 3. I haven't come up with intuitive interpretations for the alpha and beta parameters in this context. If the beta distribution means something, then its parameters must have natural interpretations as well.