Thesis: Developers are good at estimating median time to finish tasks. But the tasks that take longer, in fact take much, much longer than estimated. E.g. Dev

Thesis: Developers are good at estimating median time to finish tasks. But the tasks that take longer, in fact take much, much longer than estimated. E.g. Dev estimates that time to complete each of A, B, C tasks will be 2 days. In reality, A will take 1 day, B will take 2 days, but C will take 8 days. Dev was right about the median time to complete each task (2 days) but average was much higher. Article goes into how to statistically model the distribution of actual time to complete tasks.