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The kernel of truth of that response is that you won't get more certainty about an estimate by adding more uncertainty, no matter in how much pseudo-scientific
by js8 8y ago
The kernel of truth of that response is that you won't get more certainty about an estimate by adding more uncertainty, no matter in how much pseudo-scientific cargo-culting mumbo-jumbo you cloak it. (Unfortunately, HN readers don't really like sarcastic commentary which requires reader to think it through. Time is precious, and we just want to be coddled, give me your opinion ELI8 straight, because there is no time to think!)
- jfoutz 8y agoI think you're half right. adding an error band to a far out estimate won't give you a better estimate, but it might help tell you how much you _don't know_ about what you're facing. Cumulative error is _hard_. see weather prediction.