> Even if the DS gets close to the money, the massive assumption here is that the underlying money making process is amenable to statistics methodology Yup. A

> Even if the DS gets close to the money, the massive assumption here is that the underlying money making process is amenable to statistics methodology Yup. A famous recipe for rabbit stew starts off "First catch a rabbit ...." Well, a first recipe for applied math/stat is "First get an application ..." Still better, pick in a coordinated way the pair of the problem and the method of solution. For business want lots of people/money to have the problem and like the solution. Also want a Buffett moat: Network effect, natural monopoly, a brand name with a lot of power to get and keep customers, maybe some crucial core technology secret sauce difficult to duplicate or equal. Now try to exploit computing and the Internet. Then want LUCK of timing, etc.