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If automation is the future, isn’t a decline in the working population a good thing? The robots can just take over the vacant jobs. What am I missing?

dharmab 8y ago
If people don't have incomes, they won't buy the things the robots make.
- gubbrora 8y ago
  Is a world where we build n+1 billion tv's for n+1 billion people better than a world with n billion people and tv's?
jpatokal 8y ago
Most vacant jobs in Japan are the kind of thing that's quite difficult to automate: farm worker, health care, construction, sole person running a convenience store, etc. The comparatively easy stuff like repetitive factory work has generally been automated already.
- hrktb 8y ago
  Aren’t these jobs going to be less and less needed as population decline ? I know there is the wave of elderly people who will be SOL, but to put on my cynical hat, I think the current government has already given up on them, so I see no help on the way for them anyway.
  - jpatokal 8y ago
    No. For the next several decades, the rate of people aging out of the workforce will be much faster than the rate of people dying, but they will still need food, healthcare, etc. In effect, Japan's population pyramid has inverted: the dependency ratio of workers to elderly, which was historically under 20%, is currently around 50% and is projected to increase to ~90% by 2050. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/suikei_g_e.html http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/suikei_g_e.html
    - hrktb 8y ago
      I seriously think the next several decades will just see elderly left on their own with little to no government effective help. Basically the government raising its hand in the air and chanting “we care about you, we’re working super hard because it’s such a huge problem” while just thinking the problem will solve itself naturally. Top middle class and above people have no issue with current demographic problems, and the current elderly population is surprinsigly well behaved and docile given the situation they are in (hell, France has demos for 4 months now and it’s nowhere as dire) An interview from a while ago: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/22/national/politics-diplomacy/japans-shrinking-population-not-burden-incentive-abe/#.XLL5dxruafA https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/22/national/politi... > “Japan may be aging. Japan may be losing its population. But these are incentives for us,” he said. > “Why? Because we will continue to be motivated to grow our productivity,” Abe added, citing robots, wireless sensors, and artificial intelligence as among the tools to do so. “So, Japan’s demography, paradoxically, is not an onus, but a bonus.” Of course he’s just the facade of a party, he’ll also give other speeches about how they have very solid plans to help the elderly etc. But I kinda feel the above interview was an actual genuine view of how they see the situation.
- tmm84 8y ago
  I can vouch for this statement. My first job in Japan was in construction. Most of the foreigners I know/see are nurses, care givers, construction workers or convenience store employees.
fetbaffe 8y ago
Correct, the problem is the misguided idea of immigration when automation is the future.
Noos 8y ago
This involves a faith in automation having near-magical powers, with no downsides whatsoever. Automation is expensive, limited to specific tasks that can be broken down into an unchanging list of steps, requires constant maintenance and updating, and is very vulnerable in ways humans are not. We already are very vulnerable as a computerized society to events like typhoons-a society with less people and more reliance on automation could suffer critical effects, since it often increases fragility as a trade off for efficiency.
mertd 8y ago
A nugget of cycling wisdom says when you get fitter, cycling doesn't become any easier, you just go faster. Similarly with automation, we are just ending up with more efficient means of production but not less work overall.
- claudiawerner 8y ago
  In my opinion that's an unfortunate turn - automation doesn't liberate us, we just become more and more extensions of automated processes. Why were classical economists such as Marx and Kenyes so wrong on this point? I think they underestimated the power of capital's ideology.
- wallace_f 8y ago
  >but not less work overall I think we do have less work overall and need to accept the liberation. A lot of jobs have popped up through things like regulatory capture or monopolistic competition(1) which have debatable benefit to society. 1-https://www.athenahealth.com/insight/expert-forum-rise-and-rise-healthcare-administrator https://www.athenahealth.com/insight/expert-forum-rise-and-r...
  - deogeo 8y ago
    > A lot of jobs have popped up through things like regulatory capture or monopolistic competition(1) which have debatable benefit to society. A more concise term is 'parasites'.
dentemple 8y ago
Robots don't pay taxes, and, therefore, don't help to support the elderly safety net (which is one the biggest problems with a declining population, supporting this system). One way around this is to increase taxes (either directly or indirectly somehow) on companies that successfully implement automation, but that opens up a whole other can of worms.

dharmab 8y ago

If people don't have incomes, they won't buy the things the robots make.

gubbrora 8y ago
Is a world where we build n+1 billion tv's for n+1 billion people better than a world with n billion people and tv's?

jpatokal 8y ago

Most vacant jobs in Japan are the kind of thing that's quite difficult to automate: farm worker, health care, construction, sole person running a convenience store, etc. The comparatively easy stuff like repetitive factory work has generally been automated already.

hrktb 8y ago
Aren’t these jobs going to be less and less needed as population decline ? I know there is the wave of elderly people who will be SOL, but to put on my cynical hat, I think the current government has already given up on them, so I see no help on the way for them anyway.
- jpatokal 8y ago
  No. For the next several decades, the rate of people aging out of the workforce will be much faster than the rate of people dying, but they will still need food, healthcare, etc. In effect, Japan's population pyramid has inverted: the dependency ratio of workers to elderly, which was historically under 20%, is currently around 50% and is projected to increase to ~90% by 2050. http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/suikei_g_e.html http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/suikei_g_e.html
  - hrktb 8y ago
    I seriously think the next several decades will just see elderly left on their own with little to no government effective help. Basically the government raising its hand in the air and chanting “we care about you, we’re working super hard because it’s such a huge problem” while just thinking the problem will solve itself naturally. Top middle class and above people have no issue with current demographic problems, and the current elderly population is surprinsigly well behaved and docile given the situation they are in (hell, France has demos for 4 months now and it’s nowhere as dire) An interview from a while ago: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/22/national/politics-diplomacy/japans-shrinking-population-not-burden-incentive-abe/#.XLL5dxruafA https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2016/09/22/national/politi... > “Japan may be aging. Japan may be losing its population. But these are incentives for us,” he said. > “Why? Because we will continue to be motivated to grow our productivity,” Abe added, citing robots, wireless sensors, and artificial intelligence as among the tools to do so. “So, Japan’s demography, paradoxically, is not an onus, but a bonus.” Of course he’s just the facade of a party, he’ll also give other speeches about how they have very solid plans to help the elderly etc. But I kinda feel the above interview was an actual genuine view of how they see the situation.
tmm84 8y ago
I can vouch for this statement. My first job in Japan was in construction. Most of the foreigners I know/see are nurses, care givers, construction workers or convenience store employees.

fetbaffe 8y ago

Correct, the problem is the misguided idea of immigration when automation is the future.

Noos 8y ago

This involves a faith in automation having near-magical powers, with no downsides whatsoever. Automation is expensive, limited to specific tasks that can be broken down into an unchanging list of steps, requires constant maintenance and updating, and is very vulnerable in ways humans are not. We already are very vulnerable as a computerized society to events like typhoons-a society with less people and more reliance on automation could suffer critical effects, since it often increases fragility as a trade off for efficiency.

mertd 8y ago

A nugget of cycling wisdom says when you get fitter, cycling doesn't become any easier, you just go faster. Similarly with automation, we are just ending up with more efficient means of production but not less work overall.

claudiawerner 8y ago
In my opinion that's an unfortunate turn - automation doesn't liberate us, we just become more and more extensions of automated processes. Why were classical economists such as Marx and Kenyes so wrong on this point? I think they underestimated the power of capital's ideology.
wallace_f 8y ago
>but not less work overall I think we do have less work overall and need to accept the liberation. A lot of jobs have popped up through things like regulatory capture or monopolistic competition(1) which have debatable benefit to society. 1-https://www.athenahealth.com/insight/expert-forum-rise-and-rise-healthcare-administrator https://www.athenahealth.com/insight/expert-forum-rise-and-r...
- deogeo 8y ago
  > A lot of jobs have popped up through things like regulatory capture or monopolistic competition(1) which have debatable benefit to society. A more concise term is 'parasites'.

dentemple 8y ago

Robots don't pay taxes, and, therefore, don't help to support the elderly safety net (which is one the biggest problems with a declining population, supporting this system). One way around this is to increase taxes (either directly or indirectly somehow) on companies that successfully implement automation, but that opens up a whole other can of worms.