5 ms·

He didn't promise autonomous cars in 3 years, he promised they won't be ready for at least 3 years. Hence the leasing scheme

FireBeyond 8y ago
Other than the "The car will be able to self-drive, coast to coast, this year" back in Jan/Feb, you mean?
- metalliqaz 8y ago
  that's not the same thing as "fully autonomous"
  - simias 8y ago
    What's the nuance then?
    - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
      You can get from one coast to the other entirely on a single interstate highway (e.g. I-80), and do it in dry weather and clear conditions. It's the easiest possible thing for an autonomous car to do and is basically just adaptive cruise control. The hard part is making it work with crazy cyclists on city streets and blizzard conditions and defending against malicious adversaries who purposely try to confuse the car into crashing into something.
  - aiCeivi9 8y ago
    https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv... > Musk also promised a demonstration of a fully autonomous drive from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017 As in "without the need for a single touch from the driver". Doesn't really matter, AFAIK they are nowhere close.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  It’s not unreasonable to heavily critique the fact that Tesla deadlines are blown repeatedly, and yet who among us has gone from 0 to 300k+ vehicles manufacturer and sold per year in 12 years and delivered an EV into an elliptical orbit with a privately developed heavy lift vehicle? Don’t say something is impossible while someone else is delivering, slowly and missed deadlines or not. @sbov (deleted reply while I was replying) > So are you saying Elon's statement was right? Or are you just saying "its hard, give him some slack for making statements he knows are complete bullshit"? A pessimist’s “bullshit” is an optimist’s missed deadline and inaccurate forecasting.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
    Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. There are no fully autonomous cars, he'd have to break entirely new ground for that.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      > Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. Not at all. I'm unaware of any other heavy lift vehicles developed by a non-government entity that fly for $90 million (versus Delta Heavy's $350 million cost) and are completely reusable besides the second stage and the fairings. I'm unaware of any auto company created in the last century in the US, besides Tesla (and the ghost of GM shepherded through bankruptcy by the Obama administration), that is still in business [1]. So to answer your question, these are "solved" in the same way if you proposed to yourself, "Hey, I can build an iPhone because Apple can build and iPhone". Could you? Absolutely. Are you discounting the enormous amount of work and capital necessary to pull it off? Absolutely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man... (List of defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States)
- gibybo 8y ago
  >back in Jan/Feb May 2017 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280

FireBeyond 8y ago

Other than the "The car will be able to self-drive, coast to coast, this year" back in Jan/Feb, you mean?

metalliqaz 8y ago
that's not the same thing as "fully autonomous"
- simias 8y ago
  What's the nuance then?
  - AnthonyMouse 8y ago
    You can get from one coast to the other entirely on a single interstate highway (e.g. I-80), and do it in dry weather and clear conditions. It's the easiest possible thing for an autonomous car to do and is basically just adaptive cruise control. The hard part is making it work with crazy cyclists on city streets and blizzard conditions and defending against malicious adversaries who purposely try to confuse the car into crashing into something.
- aiCeivi9 8y ago
  https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driving-autonomous-road-trip-la-nyc https://www.theverge.com/2016/10/19/13341100/tesla-self-driv... > Musk also promised a demonstration of a fully autonomous drive from Los Angeles to New York by the end of 2017 As in "without the need for a single touch from the driver". Doesn't really matter, AFAIK they are nowhere close.
toomuchtodo 8y ago
It’s not unreasonable to heavily critique the fact that Tesla deadlines are blown repeatedly, and yet who among us has gone from 0 to 300k+ vehicles manufacturer and sold per year in 12 years and delivered an EV into an elliptical orbit with a privately developed heavy lift vehicle? Don’t say something is impossible while someone else is delivering, slowly and missed deadlines or not. @sbov (deleted reply while I was replying) > So are you saying Elon's statement was right? Or are you just saying "its hard, give him some slack for making statements he knows are complete bullshit"? A pessimist’s “bullshit” is an optimist’s missed deadline and inaccurate forecasting.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
  Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. There are no fully autonomous cars, he'd have to break entirely new ground for that.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    > Aren't those solved problems though? Like, you're talking manufacturing and scaling up production, and there are other examples of heavy lift vehicles. While they are absolutely great accomplishments, it's tweaks on previous formulas. Not at all. I'm unaware of any other heavy lift vehicles developed by a non-government entity that fly for $90 million (versus Delta Heavy's $350 million cost) and are completely reusable besides the second stage and the fairings. I'm unaware of any auto company created in the last century in the US, besides Tesla (and the ghost of GM shepherded through bankruptcy by the Obama administration), that is still in business [1]. So to answer your question, these are "solved" in the same way if you proposed to yourself, "Hey, I can build an iPhone because Apple can build and iPhone". Could you? Absolutely. Are you discounting the enormous amount of work and capital necessary to pull it off? Absolutely. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_manufacturers_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_defunct_automobile_man... (List of defunct automobile manufacturers of the United States)
gibybo 8y ago
>back in Jan/Feb May 2017 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280