4 ms·

Jawdropping. At this point, how far ahead is SpaceX from any other launch effort? 5 years? 10?

by bane 8y ago

walrus01 8y ago
Far, but if Bezos were to incrementally sell off 15-20% of his total Amazon stock, he would still remain ridiculously wealthy, and could pour nearly unlimited amounts of funding into Blue Origin. At least enough to get New Glenn flying reliably in a reusable format and probably enough to fund a Super Heavy size successor to New Glenn.
- DennisP 8y ago
  By then, his competition will be the BFR.
nickik 8y ago
The only competition is BlueOrigin really. They are optimistically only 3-4 year behind. Then they should have a rocket comparable to Falcon Heavy. The Russians are not really playing other then cheap mass production of old tech. The European spent 4 years arguing and then came up with a something to compete with at the point when they started arguing. Now it will take another 4 years and then they are still far behind what SpaceX had 10 years ago. And that is totally without re-usability, in that they are another 5-10 years behind. China is doing lots of things, but not as advanced or impressive and while they grind ahead consistently they are not close to SpaceX right now. At least they progress forward. ULA is like Europe, targeting what SpaceX had 7 years ago and they will get there in 2-3 years. And then it will be far less impressive still in terms of re-usability. India is just deploying cheap old tech. That's basically it. SpaceX owns 50% of the US government launches, 50% of global commercial launches (large once at least). All the survives are 100% government depended, the commercial launch market is basically not close to profitable for anybody but SpaceX. In terms of engine technology, its the same SpaceX and BlueOrigin are about to surpass the old glory of the US and the Russians and are moving into a new area.
- djsumdog 8y ago
  You forgot about RocketLabs in Auckland. (I know they're no where near to SpaceX/BlueOrigin, but I know people who work there, so it kinda has a special place in my heart).
  - nickik 8y ago
    I love RocketLabs. But lets be real, that's a tiny launcher. It really not in the same market as SpaceX, BO, ESA, ULA and so on. There are quite a few tiny launchers coming and RocketLabs is ahead of everybody. They did a great job, major probs. But it like comparing electric scooter company compared to Tesla.

Jawdropping. At this point, how far ahead is SpaceX from any other launch effort? 5 years? 10?

by bane 8y ago

Jawdropping. At this point, how far ahead is SpaceX from any other launch effort? 5 years? 10?

Far, but if Bezos were to incrementally sell off 15-20% of his total Amazon stock, he would still remain ridiculously wealthy, and could pour nearly unlimited amounts of funding into Blue Origin. At least enough to get New Glenn flying reliably in a reusable format and probably enough to fund a Super Heavy size successor to New Glenn.

DennisP 8y ago
By then, his competition will be the BFR.

nickik 8y ago

The only competition is BlueOrigin really. They are optimistically only 3-4 year behind. Then they should have a rocket comparable to Falcon Heavy. The Russians are not really playing other then cheap mass production of old tech. The European spent 4 years arguing and then came up with a something to compete with at the point when they started arguing. Now it will take another 4 years and then they are still far behind what SpaceX had 10 years ago. And that is totally without re-usability, in that they are another 5-10 years behind. China is doing lots of things, but not as advanced or impressive and while they grind ahead consistently they are not close to SpaceX right now. At least they progress forward. ULA is like Europe, targeting what SpaceX had 7 years ago and they will get there in 2-3 years. And then it will be far less impressive still in terms of re-usability. India is just deploying cheap old tech. That's basically it. SpaceX owns 50% of the US government launches, 50% of global commercial launches (large once at least). All the survives are 100% government depended, the commercial launch market is basically not close to profitable for anybody but SpaceX. In terms of engine technology, its the same SpaceX and BlueOrigin are about to surpass the old glory of the US and the Russians and are moving into a new area.

djsumdog 8y ago
You forgot about RocketLabs in Auckland. (I know they're no where near to SpaceX/BlueOrigin, but I know people who work there, so it kinda has a special place in my heart).
- nickik 8y ago
  I love RocketLabs. But lets be real, that's a tiny launcher. It really not in the same market as SpaceX, BO, ESA, ULA and so on. There are quite a few tiny launchers coming and RocketLabs is ahead of everybody. They did a great job, major probs. But it like comparing electric scooter company compared to Tesla.