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> (Despite all the blithering about edge cases, they haven't been big problems in practice. The serious Uber and Tesla accidents were not edge cases. They were
by kbenson 8y ago
> (Despite all the blithering about edge cases, they haven't been big problems in practice. The serious Uber and Tesla accidents were not edge cases. They were blatantly obvious obstacles: a semitrailer, a fire truck, a fixed barrier, and an isolated pedestrian on an open road.)
> It's not easy, and it's not impossible. It's just hard, like television or xerography. Those took decades from first demo until they worked well. This doesn't fit well with the startup make-money-fast model. It does fit with the big-company R&D lab model.
Amen, and to my view, that's probably a good thing. As much as I think driverless technology will be a boon when it eventually arrives fully, the interim is damn scary. I would much rather have a decade or two of intervening half-solutions that actually provide well understood levels of safety. If a company was willing to shoot for something less than the moon, we might have been on track to have specialized carpool lanes that support driverless conveyance (e.g. buses or taxis) within major cities and possibly within 30, 50 or even 100 miles of them, depending on the metro areas and funds to adopt them. The problem is, who is willing to fund research into or consider implementing at a city scale technologies that required infrastructure investment when there's all these players acting like they'll have a perfect solution in a year or two?
I would much rather have a more modest but well understood solution in place in 3-5 5 years and a good beginning for a stable and trusted fully autonomous system in 10-15 a than the broken promises, and IMO incredibly optimistic PR we get now that serves no purpose other than to steal market share of money and public perception.
- Animats 8y agoWho is willing to fund research into or consider implementing at a city scale technologies that required infrastructure investment when there's all these players acting like they'll have a perfect solution in a year or two? Yes. Volvo demoed a system where they fired strongly magnetized nails into pavement to create markers they could detect through snow. Good idea, but doesn't seem to have been pursued. Volvo pointed out that it would be useful for snowplow guidance as well as self-driving vehicles. It wasn't intended to be the only reference, just a hint for use in bad weather.
- DrScump 8y agoedge cases... haven't been big problems in practice Waymo doesn't acknowledge any "problem" that doesn't result in a collision. They don't seek input regarding such cases. Heck, most reputable trucking companies at least have a "his is my driving?" referral number clearly visible. I've seen three cases where a driver had to take evasive action to dodge a Waymo fail in the past month alone.
- rspen 8y agoMy personal experience with Waymo autonomous driving has been pretty good. Never seen them do anything poorly and I see them a lot. They're known in Mesa/Chandler Arizona as decent enough drivers, but they can take a little long for a left turn and they also follow the speed limit rather than the flow of traffic which is the normal Arizona case.