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What about the complaint/criticism that Brier scores (which Tetlock uses to score forecasters) do not weight the severity/importance of the result eg: forecasti
by ssivark 8y ago
What about the complaint/criticism that Brier scores (which Tetlock uses to score forecasters) do not weight the severity/importance of the result eg: forecasting the outcome of a war and forecasting the winner of the super bowl are weighted equally.
- tedsanders 8y agoTotally valid criticism. I think nuances like these were what Tetlock had toughest time articulating in Superforecasting and his public interviews. He chose to emphasize the big, clear points rather than subtler, more complicated issues like how questions were chosen and how they should be compared or weighted.