Sure, but that doesn’t mean 538 can’t include information about the spread, in addition to their top-line number which is just a single probability. And yes, m

Sure, but that doesn’t mean 538 can’t include information about the spread, in addition to their top-line number which is just a single probability. And yes, my discussion of polling error was oversimplified, but I was mainly just trying to explain what I meant about having to treat something as random if it’s theoretically predictable given enough information. EDIT: Hold on; I don’t think 538 does include error bars for their probabilities. They have error bars for measurables like the vote share, but that’s normal. So I don’t understand what this argument is even about :)