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You don't need the price to revert, you just need to have a better estimate of the underlying probability.
by ikeboy 8y ago
You don't need the price to revert, you just need to have a better estimate of the underlying probability.
- lolc 8y agoOh so the coin-flipper is not setting the price, but trying to predict it? I think at least I understand what you're explaining. I don't see how that is a useful model for what is going on though. Predicting the result of a vote for a day when it's not going to be held is a form of entertainment that can't be verified. Is Silver claiming any more than that?
- ikeboy 8y agoYes, Silver is absolutely trying to forecast elections months in advance. Taleb's argument is that the polls at that point are largely noise, and so Silver is updating too much on them when he should basically ignore most of them until shortly before the election.