Actual probabilities are uncertain. If you think of the probability distribution on probabilities (the Bayesian prior), the claim that "one of the extreme proba

Actual probabilities are uncertain. If you think of the probability distribution on probabilities (the Bayesian prior), the claim that "one of the extreme probabilities is more likely than a halfway one" makes sense, eg. [0] It makes more sense philosophically to make claims about one's model than about the real world, anyway. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcsine_distribution https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arcsine_distribution