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Ah, interesting link. I think I ran into some confusion since 'rational' and 'Bayesian' are somewhat overloaded terms. When I think of Bayesian analysis, I alw
by et2o 8y ago
Ah, interesting link. I think I ran into some confusion since 'rational' and 'Bayesian' are somewhat overloaded terms.
When I think of Bayesian analysis, I always think of Bayesian models which attempt to model uncertainty and always have a posterior distribution (spread) of outcomes.
For example, in the Dutch Book page, instead of having a point-prior (P=0.51 (delta on P=0.51?)), each degree of belief could have some (different) distribution which could yield a posterior with a distribution and change the math here.