That's just not true. In 2016 they had several versions of the model. One was called the NowCast that very explicitly modeled the probability of winning the e

That's just not true. In 2016 they had several versions of the model. One was called the NowCast that very explicitly modeled the probability of winning the election today. They had a separate model that gave the probability of winning on election day, which included whatever their estimate was of uncertainty moving forward (including the probability of game-changing events, which is pretty low).