But that's just nonsense. If something happened yesterday that has people all hot and bothered today but which nobody will give a shit about anymore by the time

But that's just nonsense. If something happened yesterday that has people all hot and bothered today but which nobody will give a shit about anymore by the time the next election rolls around, Silver should say "nobody will give a shit about this anymore by the time next election rolls around." Giving a numerical value of how it would effect the election if it were to happen tomorrow is gibberish on the level of "if my grandmother had wheels she'd be a wagon".